Analysts are sounding the alarm: overheating in US markets threatens a crash — what this means for Bitcoin
Two globally recognized experts have almost simultaneously warned about a critical overheating of the US stock market. Now, when the US stock market capitalization relative to GDP has reached levels not seen since 1928–1929, and investors are massively betting on continued growth, we are observing classic signs of a "bubble" forming. The question is not whether a correction will occur, but when and what its trigger will be.
McGlone: Bitcoin as a Harbinger of a Reversal
One of the leading strategists at Bloomberg Intelligence, Mike McGlone, points out that Bitcoin, which first led the rally, is now the first to reverse downward. In his view, this is a classic signal that the "dominoes" are starting to fall. He draws a parallel with 2008, when oil first soared to the skies and then crashed, and compares the current surge in IPOs with the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024 — an event that preceded a market peak.
McGlone pays special attention to market expectations: about 80% of participants predict growth in the S&P 500 by the end of the year, which is an anomaly for a US midterm election year. Typically, a drawdown is more likely during such a period. The ratio of US government bonds to gold, in his assessment, is approaching a 40-year low, which also points to a shift in the long-term trend.
Dalio: Capital Concentration in AI — A Decade-Long Risk
Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio paints a similar but more macroeconomic picture. He warns of a dangerous concentration of capital in a narrow group of companies related to artificial intelligence. According to his forecast, the real return on US stocks over the next 5–10 years could range from -5% to -10% per year.
Dalio assesses the situation through his concept of the "five forces": debt and monetary policy, domestic politics, geopolitics, natural phenomena, and technological changes. He emphasizes that historically, technological cycles are always accompanied by inflated valuations, high volatility, and uncertainty regarding long-term winners. Making a large bet on a narrow group of leaders under such conditions is an extremely risky strategy.
A Double Blow for Bitcoin
For Bitcoin, this situation carries a double risk. On one hand, as the risk asset most sensitive to liquidity, it could be the first to fall during a general market reversal. On the other hand, if overvalued stocks indeed begin to yield negative returns, some capital may eventually flow into Bitcoin as an asset weakly correlated with the stock market.
My analysis: We stand on the threshold of one of the most significant "capital rotations" in history. If traditional markets begin to reverse, Bitcoin will initially suffer from panic and margin calls. However, it is precisely in this scenario that it could demonstrate its properties as "digital gold" — a store of value — attracting capital seeking refuge from the depreciation of traditional assets. The key point is that Bitcoin must first survive the "fire" before it can become a "safe haven."