Weekly Review: Bitcoin on a Rollercoaster, Russia's Supreme Court Recognizes Cryptocurrency as a Subject of Theft, and Tightening of MiCA in the EU
The past week was extremely eventful for the crypto industry. The leading cryptocurrency demonstrated classic volatility amid geopolitical news, while regulators in Russia and Europe made important steps shaping the future of the sector.
Bitcoin: Ups and Downs Amid Geopolitics
The week began with a confident rise in Bitcoin from $64,000 to a local high of $67,278. The catalyst was reports of a possible truce between the US and Iran. However, euphoria quickly gave way to a correction: disagreements between the parties and weak demand returned the price to $64,000, and after the Fed meeting, which kept the rate at 3.5-3.75% and hinted at a possible hike, the price broke below this level.
The culmination of the week was Friday, when Bitcoin crashed to $62,000 due to renewed uncertainty in the Middle East. Nevertheless, by the weekend, the leading cryptocurrency recovered above $64,000 thanks to the resumption of negotiations and falling oil prices, which spurred capital inflows into risk assets. On a weekly basis, Bitcoin's price remained virtually unchanged, allowing altcoins such as Solana (+8.6%) and Hyperliquid (+12%) to show more impressive dynamics.
My analysis: The six-week record outflow from spot Bitcoin ETFs (about $5.43 billion) and the decline in total capital to the level of November 2024 ($78.3 billion) is a worrying signal. This suggests that institutional investors are not yet ready for active buying, preferring to watch the development of the macroeconomic situation. The Fear and Greed Index, although it rose to 23 points, is still in the extreme fear zone, confirming the market's cautious sentiment.
Russia: Cryptocurrency Recognized as an Object of Theft
A landmark event occurred in the Russian legal system. The Plenum of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation amended a 2002 ruling, officially recognizing digital currency, digital rubles, and digital rights as objects of theft. This means that the theft of cryptocurrency will now be classified under the Criminal Code as theft, robbery, or assault. The court also clarified that the moment of completion of theft of non-cash funds (including digital ones) occurs from the moment they are debited from the victim's account. This is an important step towards forming a clear legal framework for cryptocurrencies in the Russian Federation.
Europe: ESMA Demands Unlicensed Platforms Leave the EU
The European regulator ESMA reminded that from July 1, all crypto companies without a MiCA license must stop servicing clients from the European Union. The regulator requires a plan for winding down business to be prepared in advance. According to Hogan Lovells estimates, only 194 out of 3,000 previously operating companies have received official permission. It is expected that about 75% of old platforms will leave the European market, leading to account blocking and the need for users to withdraw funds. This is a serious filter that will radically change the landscape of the European crypto industry.
Ethereum Ecosystem: Warning of a Funding Crisis
Former Ethereum Foundation employee Trent Van Epps warned of a "slowly escalating funding crisis" in the Ethereum ecosystem over the next 3-9 months. The main risks are associated with the reduction of the foundation's treasury (a plan to cut spending from 15% to 5% by 2030) and the end of the Client Incentive Program in April 2026. According to Van Epps' estimate, the ecosystem needs about $30 million for developers. Without stable funding, there is a risk of losing key personnel and falling behind in preparing for challenges such as quantum computing.
My analysis: Van Epps' warning is not just a technical note. It is a signal that decentralized ecosystems, despite their philosophy, face classic management and funding problems. The Ethereum Foundation cannot be the sole source of funds forever, and finding new, sustainable funding mechanisms is a critically important task for the future of the network.
Overall, the week showed that the market remains heavily dependent on macroeconomic and geopolitical factors, while regulatory decisions in different jurisdictions are shaping a new, more structured, but also harsher reality for cryptocurrencies.