Weekly Review: Bitcoin at a Crossroads, Russia's Supreme Court Changes the Game, and MiCA Drives Illegals Out of the EU
The past week was marked by classic "roller coaster" moves for Bitcoin, a significant legal precedent in Russia, and a strict deadline for crypto businesses in Europe. We break down the key events that will shape trends in the coming weeks.
Bitcoin: The Illusion of Growth and the Reality of Outflows
The market started the week on an optimistic note: rumors of a truce between the US and Iran pushed BTC to a local high of $67,278. However, this rise proved to be nothing more than a speculative surge. As geopolitical tensions flared up again and the US Federal Reserve, led by Kevin Warsh, confirmed a hawkish stance by maintaining the rate at 3.5-3.75%, the bullish momentum fizzled out. By Friday, the price had slumped to $62,000, only recovering to $64,000 over the weekend amid renewed negotiations and falling oil prices.
The key takeaway is that the market does not believe in sustainable growth without fundamental drivers. Waning institutional interest is confirmed by a record six-week outflow from spot Bitcoin ETFs: during this period, products lost approximately $5.43 billion, and the total capital in them shrank to $78.3 billion – a level last seen in November 2024. Against this backdrop, altcoins like Solana (+8.6%) and Hyperliquid (+12%) showed stronger momentum, seizing the initiative from the flagship asset. The Fear and Greed Index, while rising from 18 to 23 points, remains in the extreme fear zone, signaling high nervousness among participants.
Russia: Digital Assets Equated to Property
A landmark event for the Russian crypto market occurred on June 16. The Plenum of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation officially recognized digital currency, digital rubles, and digital rights as objects of theft. This means that the theft of crypto assets is now qualified under the articles of the Russian Criminal Code concerning theft, robbery, and assault, rather than remaining in a "gray" legal area.
Of particular note is the clarification of the moment the crime is completed: the theft of non-cash funds (including cryptocurrency) is considered complete from the moment they are debited from the victim's account. This decision significantly simplifies the work of law enforcement agencies and creates clearer legal frameworks for digital asset owners. From my perspective, this is the first serious step towards integrating cryptocurrencies into the legal field of the Russian Federation, which could potentially lead to more detailed regulation in the future.
Europe: A Final Warning for "Gray" Platforms
The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) issued an ultimatum: from July 1, all crypto companies without a MiCA license must cease servicing clients in the EU. The regulator requires them to prepare plans for winding down their business in advance. According to Hogan Lovells, only 194 companies out of over 3,000 previously operating in the region had obtained legal status by May. It is expected that up to 75% of old platforms will leave the European market.
For users, this means one thing: accounts on unlicensed exchanges will be blocked, and funds will need to be urgently withdrawn. This is a tectonic shift for the market, definitively dividing the EU into "clean" and "black" zones for crypto businesses.
Expert Summary
The week showed that the market is in a phase of consolidation and searching for new triggers. Bitcoin is stuck in the $62,000-$67,000 range, and without a powerful catalyst (be it a Fed rate cut or a positive regulatory shift), a breakout is unlikely. Meanwhile, the actions of the Russian Supreme Court and ESMA demonstrate a global trend: cryptocurrencies are ceasing to be the "Wild West" and are coming under the jurisdiction of traditional legal systems. Players who cannot adapt to the new rules will have to leave the table.