Weekly Review: Bitcoin on the swings, the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation has defined the status of cryptocurrencies, and Europe prepares for an exodus.
The past week was marked by sharp movements in Bitcoin, an important precedent in Russian judicial practice, and a tough ultimatum from the European regulator. The market continues to fluctuate amid geopolitical uncertainty and macroeconomic signals.
Bitcoin: Roller Coaster Without a Change in Altitude
The week started optimistically. Bitcoin, spurred by news of a potential truce between the US and Iran, surged to the $67,278 mark. However, the euphoria quickly faded. Skepticism about the durability of the agreement and weak demand from institutions brought the price back to the $64,000 level. And after the Fed meeting, where Kevin Warsh's rhetoric proved tougher than expected, the bulls faltered, and the asset fell to $62,000.
The weekend provided a rescue: the US delegation did eventually head to negotiations, and falling oil redirected capital into risky assets. As a result, Bitcoin finished where it started — around $64,000. The weekly flat is not about stagnation, but about capital rotation. Altcoins, especially Solana (+8.6%) and Hyperliquid (+12%), felt much more confident against Bitcoin's sideways movement.
The main alarm signal is a record outflow from spot Bitcoin ETFs. For the sixth consecutive week, investors have been withdrawing funds, with a total loss of $5.43 billion. The total capital in these products has fallen to the level of November 2024 — $78.3 billion. The Fear and Greed Index, although it rose from 18 to 23, is still firmly stuck in the "extreme fear" zone. The market is waiting for a powerful catalyst to decide on a direction.
Russia: Cryptocurrency — Now Officially an "Item of Theft"
On June 16, the Plenum of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation made a historic clarification: digital currency, digital rubles, and digital rights are officially recognized as items of theft. This is not legalization, but the criminalization of circulation from a legal standpoint. From now on, the theft of crypto assets will be classified under the same articles as the theft of cash or non-cash money.
A key nuance: the moment the crime is considered completed will be the debiting of funds from the victim's account. This removes many legal conflicts that previously allowed perpetrators to evade responsibility. The Supreme Court's decision is a powerful signal for all law enforcement practice, which, in my opinion, will increase market security in the long term, but in the short term could create a wave of reviews of old cases.
Europe: "Zero Hour" for Crypto Exchanges
The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) has set a strict deadline: from July 1, all crypto companies without a MiCA license must stop servicing clients from the EU. This is not just a reminder, but a requirement to prepare a business wind-down plan. According to Hogan Lovells, out of approximately 3,000 firms operating in the region, only 194 have received official authorization. It is expected that up to 75% of "old" players will leave the market.
For users, this means account blocking and forced withdrawal of funds. The EU market is on the verge of a large-scale purge, which, in my opinion, will lead to consolidation and the retreat into the shadows of many services unprepared for strict regulation.
Expert Opinion
The week showed that the market is in a phase of accumulating uncertainty. Bitcoin is marking time, waiting either for a breakthrough in the geopolitical deadlock or for a new shock. The Russian legal field is taking an important step towards recognizing realities, while Europe, on the contrary, is tightening the rules of the game, forcing businesses to choose: comply or leave. Investors should prepare for increased volatility in the coming weeks.