Polymarket has been caught in large-scale fraud: staged bets and fake winnings
The prediction platform Polymarket has found itself at the center of a scandal involving the systematic misleading of users. It turned out that the company secretly funded the creation of content showcasing fake bets and non-existent winnings. These videos were actively distributed on social media, serving as covert advertising for the service.
The scheme was streamlined: creators were paid between $2,000 and $3,000 monthly to produce staged videos. At the same time, they were required not to disclose the fact of collaboration. For greater credibility, fake copies of the Polymarket website were used to record "testimonials" of successful bets.
In total, from December to mid-May, 1,105 such videos were published by ten sponsored creators. Their combined reach exceeded 140 million views. The promotion was handled by a separate marketing agency specializing in viral content.
One of the most striking examples is student George Makihara. In January, he posted a video claiming to have won $100,000 on a bet that Donald Trump would publicly say the word "McDonald’s." Between January and mid-May, Makihara showcased 145 bets totaling nearly $410,000 — all of which were fake.
After a journalistic investigation uncovered these manipulations, many creators rushed to delete the compromising videos. Polymarket, in turn, shut down the clone websites used to record the materials.
This incident is just the tip of the iceberg. Earlier, analysts at Bubblemaps had already identified 80 bets on U.S. military action against Iran on the platform with suspiciously high accuracy, raising questions about the integrity of the system itself.
Expert comment: This case seriously undermines trust in prediction markets, which position themselves as tools for objective forecasting. Polymarket has demonstrated a willingness to manipulate public perception, making its results no more reliable than ordinary bookmaker odds. Investors and analysts should be extremely critical of data from this platform until content verification mechanisms are implemented.