The corporate Bitcoin fever is over: what the charts say
The wave of corporate bitcoin purchases that swept the market in 2024–2025 has completed a full speculative bubble cycle. An analysis of the buying dynamics among public company holders shows an almost perfect match with the classic bubble model by Jean-Paul Rodrigue. This is not just a coincidence, but a clear signal of a shift in the market paradigm.
A chart that speaks for itself
The presented chart combines the price of bitcoin and an indicator of corporate purchases. For years, the blue line hovered near zero, but in 2024, a gradual rise began. This was followed by an explosive, almost vertical peak in the spring of 2025. Then came a sharp crash, a weak rebound, and a steady decline throughout 2026. This trajectory fully replicates the Rodrigue pattern: first, informed players quietly accumulate the asset, then large institutions join in, the price rises, and the media starts covering the growth. At the peak, the general public enters the game en masse, driven by fear of missing out. After the peak, denial, fear, and capitulation logically follow. Participants sell off assets, and the price returns to initial levels.
Key nuance: the bubble is not in bitcoin, but in the trend
It is important to understand: it is not bitcoin itself that is deflating, but the speculative superstructure around the corporate reserve model. The price of bitcoin holds around $64,000, while the corporate purchase indicator has crashed from its peak. This means that the bubble was the trend of buying bitcoin for corporate reserves, not the underlying asset. The flow of corporate money that supported the market in 2024–2025 is gradually drying up, not growing.
Risk concentration: dominance of Strategy
The situation is worsened by extreme market concentration. Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) holds 846,842 BTC worth $54.33 billion, accounting for 4.03% of the total supply. This is more than all other top 10 public companies combined. Marathon Digital, Twenty One Capital, Metaplanet, Bullish, and others hold significantly smaller amounts. Thus, the so-called "corporate bubble" mainly consists of small and medium-sized companies blindly copying Strategy's actions. Strategy itself, with its massive share, stands apart. Even if the trend of such imitation fades and other firms stop buying cryptocurrency, the main player is unlikely to be affected.
Types of holders: not all are the same
It is also worth distinguishing between types of holders. Pure bets in the style of Strategy are one thing. Coinbase, Tether, BitMEX, and Xapo hold coins as operational or client reserves, meaning by the nature of their business, not for speculation on price increases. Among private holders on the list is Mt. Gox with 34,164 BTC, but this is not an investor, but the bankruptcy estate, with coins being distributed among creditors.
My expert opinion: The corporate bitcoin frenzy is a classic example of how one leader (Strategy) creates a trend that is then mindlessly copied by dozens of companies. However, when the trend fades, the consequences for the market may not be as dramatic as they first appear. The main blow will hit the "imitators," not the pioneer. Investors should focus on bitcoin's fundamental indicators, rather than the hype around corporate reserves.