Bitcoin ETFs are experiencing their worst series of outflows: the market is losing billions, but the bottom is already near
US spot bitcoin ETFs recorded their sixth consecutive week of net capital outflows. As of June 18, total outflows amounted to $90.66 million per day, and over the past month and a half, $5.94 billion has been withdrawn from the funds. This is the longest streak of negative dynamics since the launch of these instruments.
Why is capital leaving bitcoin ETFs?
The main reason was a shift of funds into stocks of companies in the artificial intelligence sector. The market has shifted its focus to expectations of major IPOs, such as OpenAI, which temporarily reduced appetite for cryptocurrency assets. However, it is important to note that the pace of withdrawals is slowing: while at the beginning of June weekly outflows exceeded $1.7 billion, by mid-month they had decreased to $226 million.
A significant portion of the outflows is related to the closure of arbitrage trades, rather than a decline in demand for bitcoin itself. Long-term investors, including pension funds, are maintaining their positions, indicating structural market resilience.
Macroeconomic pressure and bitcoin price
The price of bitcoin has stabilized around $64,000, but the market continues to face pressure from macroeconomic factors. The "hawkish" stance of new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, who confirmed the intention to reduce inflation to 2%, is increasing uncertainty. Analysts expect prices to remain in a sideways trend until the regulator eases its policy or clear positive drivers emerge in the industry.
Market innovations: BlackRock launches a new fund
Despite the overall negative dynamics, in June BlackRock launched the iShares Bitcoin Premium Income ETF on Nasdaq. This instrument combines exposure to the spot price of bitcoin with active selling of covered call options, which could attract investors seeking returns in volatile conditions.
My analysis: The current series of outflows is not panic, but rather a correction after aggressive accumulation. The slowdown in withdrawal rates and the retention of positions by institutional investors indicate that the market is close to a reversal. As soon as the macroeconomic backdrop softens or a new catalyst emerges (e.g., approval of an Ethereum ETF or positive regulatory news), we will see a return of capital. For now, investors should prepare for a sideways trend with possible sharp upward movements upon breaking key levels.