Three signs of an impending reversal in the altcoin market: weekly chart analysis
The altcoin market is showing signs that experienced analysts interpret as precursors to a trend reversal. The focus is on the TOTAL3 index, which reflects the total market capitalization of all altcoins excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum. My analysis of weekly charts reveals a configuration that exactly mirrors the structure formed in 2022, shortly before the start of a powerful recovery rally.
Back then, after the collapse of the FTX exchange, altcoins continued to depreciate, and most market participants expected further decline. However, the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) began forming higher lows, while the price remained at suppressed levels. This is a classic sign of hidden bullish divergence, which ultimately preceded a major reversal. We are now observing a similar picture: prices look weak, but the RSI is painting higher lows.
Current Dynamics of TOTAL3
The altcoin market capitalization is stuck near the $680 billion mark, significantly below the peaks of 2025. However, the key point is that the price is holding above the panic zone, refusing to enter a deeper correction. The weekly dynamics do not look emotionally bullish; the chart appears "boring" and "damaged." But, as history shows, it is often from such a configuration that a reversal structure forms.
Among the coins that, in my assessment, have already formed a local bottom, I can highlight SEI (near $0.05), INJ (around $5), SUI (slightly below $1), ONDO (with potential to triple to $1), and TAO, confidently holding at $200. Notably, many retail investors continue to consider the current cycle over, which is an additional psychological signal.
Three Signals in Favor of a Reversal
First signal: the altcoin price is holding above the panic zone. TOTAL3 has corrected significantly but has not erased all the gains from the previous cycle. This indicates that the market is weak but not dead.
Second signal: improvement in weekly RSI dynamics. The index is forming higher lows, pointing to a weakening of sellers, even when the price looks "heavy." This is exactly how the bottom formed in 2022.
Third signal: the return of the 2022 fractal. Last time, such a divergence in weekly dynamics preceded the start of a bullish phase, not its end. This does not imply an immediate vertical rise, but the bearish inertia is likely exhausting itself.
My expert assessment: the current configuration is one of the most underestimated signals in the market. While the crowd expects a new crash, the structure hints at hidden accumulation. Investors should closely watch the weekly RSI lows: a breakout to the upside could serve as a trigger for the start of a new altseason.