Three hidden signals of the altcoin market reversal: analysis of the current situation
The weekly chart of the TOTAL3 index — the market capitalization of altcoins excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum — shows a structure strikingly reminiscent of the 2022 bottom. The similarity lies not in price levels, but in the dynamics: quotes appear weak, yet the weekly RSI is forming a higher low. This is a classic sign of hidden bullish divergence, which often precedes a trend reversal.
To recall, after the collapse of the FTX exchange in 2022, altcoins continued to fall, but the weekly RSI quietly painted a rising low. The price seemed "broken," and most participants expected a new crash. However, it was precisely this higher low on the indicator that marked the beginning of a major recovery. History tends to repeat itself, and we are now seeing a similar picture.
Current Situation: Apparent Weakness
The altcoin market capitalization remains significantly below the peaks of the 2025 bull market and hovers around the $680 billion mark. At the same time, the weekly dynamics are again forming a higher low, while the price refuses to enter a deeper correction. This configuration often confuses retail investors: the chart does not look bullish emotionally — it seems "boring, damaged, as if nothing is happening." But it is precisely here that the reversal structure begins to take shape.
Among the coins that, in my assessment, have already found a bottom: SEI around $0.05, INJ in the $5 range, SUI slightly below $1, ONDO with the potential to triple to $1, and TAO, confidently holding near $200. Most market participants still view the cycle as over — and this is an additional contrarian signal.
Three Signals in Favor of a Reversal
First signal: the price holds above the panic zone. TOTAL3 has corrected significantly but has not erased all the gains of the previous cycle. This means the market is weak, but not dead. Bears were unable to push the capitalization below critical support levels.
Second signal: improvement in weekly RSI dynamics. The Relative Strength Index is building a higher low. This indicates that sellers are losing strength, even when the price "looks heavy." In my experience, this is exactly how a bottom forms — not on an emotional surge, but on a quiet exhaustion of selling.
Third signal: the return of the 2022 fractal. Last time altcoins showed such a divergence in weekly dynamics, the market was much closer to the start of a bullish phase than to its end. This does not mean vertical growth tomorrow, but the bearish inertia is likely already fading.
My expert opinion: The altcoin market is in a phase of hidden accumulation. Ignoring these signals is a typical mistake of retail traders who look only at the price, not at the internal dynamics. Those who enter positions now, before the mass rally begins, may find themselves in an advantageous position when the bearish narrative shifts to a bullish one. Be patient and watch the weekly charts — they are currently providing key information.