Corporate Bitcoin euphoria has fizzled out: what's behind the bursting of the "bubble" and who will come out ahead
The wave of corporate Bitcoin purchases that swept the market in 2024–2025 has gone through all stages of a classic speculative bubble. An analysis of the buying dynamics of public companies shows a frightening similarity to the canonical model of Jean-Paul Rodrigue. We explore what this means for the market and why the main blow will not hit Bitcoin itself.
The corporate Bitcoin buying indicator, which remained at zero levels for years, began a gradual but steady rise in 2024. Then, in the spring of 2025, there was an explosive, almost vertical surge. However, the peak was followed by an equally sharp collapse, a weak attempt at a rebound, and a sustained decline throughout 2026. This trajectory perfectly fits the graph of the Rodrigue model, which describes the phases of any financial bubble: from hidden accumulation by informed players to the mass entry of retail investors at the peak of euphoria and subsequent capitulation.
The key conclusion that emerges from this analysis is that the peak of corporate interest in Bitcoin as a reserve asset has already passed. The flow of institutional money that fueled the market is drying up, not growing. But most importantly, this is not the collapse of Bitcoin itself, but rather the bursting of the speculative bubble around the fad for corporate reserves.
The Domino Effect: Who Actually "Inflated" the Bubble
The main risk of the situation is the extreme concentration of the market. The company Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) holds 846,842 BTC, which is 4.03% of the total supply. This is more than all other companies in the top 10 combined. The rest—Marathon Digital, Metaplanet, Riot, and others—merely copy the leader's strategy without having their own fundamental reason for accumulation.
Thus, the so-called "corporate bubble" consists mainly of medium and small firms that blindly follow the flagship. Strategy itself, with its share, stands apart. Even if the imitation trend fades and other companies stop buying cryptocurrency, the main player is unlikely to be affected. Its position is no longer speculation but a strategic asset.
The paradox of the situation is that the price of Bitcoin itself (around $64,000) does not show a catastrophic decline, while the corporate buying indicator has collapsed. This directly indicates that it is the speculative superstructure around the reserve model that is deflating, not the underlying asset. The bubble turned out to be the fad for corporate reserves, not Bitcoin itself.
My professional assessment: The market is clearing out "noise" and superficial trends. Investors who entered Bitcoin by copying the strategies of large corporations may face disappointment. However, for those who look at the fundamental metrics of the network and the long-term value of the asset, the current correction is more of an opportunity than a disaster. Bitcoin as an asset will survive this shake-up, but the reputation of many "Bitcoin companies" may be undermined.