Three signals of altcoin reversal: what the charts are saying
The altcoin market, despite apparent weakness, may be much closer to a reversal than it seems at first glance. Analysis of the weekly chart of the TOTAL3 index (the market capitalization of all altcoins excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum) reveals a pattern eerily similar to the one that preceded the powerful recovery after the FTX crash in 2022.
Back then, after the exchange's collapse, prices continued to fall, creating an impression of complete hopelessness. However, the weekly RSI (Relative Strength Index) began forming higher lows, while the price still looked "broken." It was this divergence that heralded the start of a new major uptrend for altcoins. Today, we observe a similar picture: the TOTAL3 price holds around the $680 billion mark, significantly below the 2025 peaks, but the RSI on the weekly chart is already painting a higher low. This is a classic sign of weakening bearish pressure.
Three Key Signals for Altcoins
I highlight three main factors pointing to a potential reversal. First — the price holds above the panic zone. TOTAL3 has undergone a deep correction but has not erased all the gains of the previous cycle. This suggests the market is weak but not dead — the foundation for recovery remains. Second — improvement in weekly RSI dynamics. As mentioned, the indicator is forming a higher low, indicating that sellers are losing strength even when the price looks heavy. In my experience, this is exactly how bottoms are formed. Third — repetition of the 2022 fractal. Last time, such a divergence between price and RSI led to the start of a bullish phase, not its end.
Against this backdrop, certain individual coins deserve special attention, which, in my assessment, have already found a bottom: SEI around $0.05, INJ near $5, SUI slightly below $1, ONDO with the potential to triple to $1, and TAO holding the $200 level. Most market participants still consider the cycle over, but it is precisely in moments of maximum skepticism that the foundations for new growth are laid.
My expert opinion: The altcoin market is at a critical point. Ignoring the signals of price and RSI divergence is a typical mistake of retail investors who wait for "obvious" confirmation. However, it is the hidden strength visible on weekly charts that often precedes the most significant rallies. Bearish inertia is likely already exhausted, and we stand on the threshold of a new phase for altcoins.