Gold vs. Oil: Where Capital Flows Amid the Easing of Geopolitical Risks
Geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran are gradually losing their edge for global investors. Fears over energy supply disruptions are fading, replaced by a clear pattern of capital redistribution. Oil prices are giving way, gold is steadily rising, and the cryptocurrency market is showing relative calm, signaling a shift in priorities among major players.
The new trading week opened with a restrained but telling reaction. The commodity sector came under selling pressure. Benchmark Brent crude lost nearly 2%, settling around $79 per barrel. Meanwhile, US WTI dropped into the $75–76 range. This is a direct result of the reduced risk premium that had been priced in amid the conflict escalation.
The US stock market responded with a slight correction: the S&P 500 index fell by about 0.3%. However, key safe-haven assets and debt market indicators remain stable. The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds holds at 4.4%, and the US dollar index DXY is fixed near the 100.8 mark. This has created ideal conditions for gold to rise. The yellow metal gained more than 1%, reaching approximately $4,209 per ounce. Demand for safe-haven instruments is evident: capital is actively flowing into gold, ignoring risk assets, including oil.
Crypto Market: Calm Before the Storm?
Digital assets are holding steady despite macroeconomic uncertainty. Bitcoin is trading around $64,000, while Ethereum is stable near $1,730. Notably, net outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs are still ongoing, but open interest in futures on key coins remains at elevated levels.
Funding rates are now extremely close to neutral values, and the daily liquidation volume does not exceed $40 million. This clearly indicates balanced leverage usage after the recent wave of volatility. Investors are not rushing to take profits or increase positions—they are waiting.
My analysis: The current picture confirms a strong divergence between asset classes. Gold is effectively attracting free capital, while commodities are under selling pressure. However, stable volumes in the derivatives market point to long-term interest in cryptocurrency. Key triggers for the markets in the coming days will be the dynamics of US Treasury yields, news on crypto ETFs, and the geopolitical agenda. These factors will determine whether the established trends persist through the end of the week. I expect gold to continue playing the role of the main beneficiary, while Bitcoin will consolidate, preparing for a more decisive move.