Gold vs. Oil: Where Capital Flows Amid Geopolitics
The start of the new trading week was marked by a notable capital flow between key asset classes. The geopolitical backdrop, which had recently caused panic in commodity markets, is gradually losing its edge. Investors are adapting to the new reality, and this is reflected in price dynamics: oil is losing ground, gold is steadily rising, and the cryptocurrency market is showing relative calm.
The commodity sector came under selling pressure. Benchmark Brent crude fell nearly 2%, settling around $79 per barrel. U.S. WTI, meanwhile, dropped into the $75–76 range. This correction indicates that concerns over supply disruptions due to the conflict between the U.S. and Iran are beginning to ease. The market is pricing in a reduced risk premium.
A completely different picture is emerging in the precious metals market. Gold rose more than 1%, climbing to around $4,209 per ounce. This surge is direct confirmation of high demand for safe-haven assets. At the same time, the U.S. stock index S&P 500 showed a slight downward correction (about 0.3%), while the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds and the U.S. dollar index DXY remained stable—at 4.4% and 100.8, respectively. This suggests that capital is not flowing into "cash," but rather into traditional "safe havens."
Cryptocurrencies: Stability Amid Macroeconomic Turbulence
Digital assets are behaving confidently despite the overall uncertainty. Bitcoin is trading around $64,000, while Ethereum is holding steady near $1,730. Notably, net outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs are still ongoing, but open interest in futures on key coins remains elevated. This indicates that professional traders are maintaining long-term interest, using the derivatives market for hedging or speculation.
Funding rate indicators are now extremely close to neutral levels, and the daily volume of liquidations does not exceed $40 million. This points to a balanced use of leverage after the recent wave of volatility. The market has clearly taken a pause for consolidation.
My view: The current picture highlights a strong divergence between asset classes. Gold is effectively attracting free capital, while commodities are under selling pressure. For cryptocurrencies, the key triggers in the coming days will be the dynamics of U.S. Treasury bond yields, news on spot ETFs, and escalation (or de-escalation) in the Middle East. These factors will determine whether the outlined trends persist through the end of the week.