Capital Flow: Gold Surges to the Lead, Oil Loses Ground
Geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran are gradually losing their status as the main driver for commodity markets. Initial fears about oil supply disruptions are easing, and investors are actively reassessing their strategies. Panic is giving way to rational capital reallocation: gold is confidently rising in price, while oil, on the contrary, is showing a noticeable decline. The cryptocurrency market is displaying relative calm in this situation, which also deserves close attention.
Commodities and Stock Market: A Shift in Priorities
The new trading week was marked by a restrained but telling reaction from global markets to the Middle East conflict. The commodity sector came under pressure: the benchmark Brent crude fell by nearly 2%, settling around $79 per barrel. US WTI also declined, entering the $75-76 range.
The US stock market responded with a minor correction: the S&P 500 index lost about 0.3%. However, key safe-haven assets strengthened instead. The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds remained stable at 4.4%, and the US dollar index DXY settled near the 100.8 mark. Against this backdrop, gold made a confident surge, rising by more than 1% and reaching a level of around $4209 per ounce. This clearly demonstrates high demand for safe-haven instruments amid uncertainty.
Crypto Market: Stability Amid Volatility
Digital assets are behaving confidently, not succumbing to the general nervousness. Bitcoin is trading around $64,000, while Ethereum is steadily holding near $1730. Notably, net capital outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs continue, but open interest in futures on key coins remains at elevated levels. This indicates that large players are not rushing to close positions, but are rather shifting into derivatives.
Funding rate indicators are now as close to neutral values as possible, and the daily liquidation volume does not exceed $40 million. This points to a measured use of leverage after the recent wave of volatility. The market has clearly digested the stress and entered a consolidation phase.
My conclusion: The current picture highlights a strong divergence between asset classes. Gold is effectively attracting free capital, while oil is under selling pressure. Stable volumes in the derivatives market indicate long-term investor interest in cryptocurrency. Key triggers for markets in the coming days will be the dynamics of government bond yields, news on crypto ETFs, and the situation in the Middle East. These factors will determine whether the outlined trends persist until the end of the week.