Bitcoin liquidity on the OTC market has collapsed to a record low — whales are in active accumulation mode.
The Bitcoin over-the-counter (OTC) market is experiencing an unprecedented liquidity squeeze. Analytical data from on-chain metrics records a steady decline in OTC BTC balances, which has been ongoing since 2022. Currently, the indicator has reached an all-time low, signaling a powerful accumulation phase by major institutional players.
According to my analysis, the volume of bitcoins available on OTC platforms has decreased by 400,000 coins — from 550,000 to approximately 150,000 BTC. This is radically different from the structure of previous market cycles. Typically, OTC balances began to rise closer to the end of a bull rally, when large holders took profits. However, in the current cycle, we are seeing the opposite dynamic: whales are not selling but actively buying, extending the accumulation phase.
Structural Changes in the Cycle
The rate of price increase during the current bull market has been significantly lower than in previous periods. This indicates a more "stretched" and slower nature of the growth phase. In my estimation, the real rally will only begin after large investors complete their accumulation. Once this happens, OTC balances will rise again, and the current low only confirms that the accumulation process is proceeding at an unprecedented pace, with market liquidity practically exhausted.
Stablecoin Reserves: Hidden Potential
In parallel with the depletion of OTC BTC inventories, I am recording a recovery in ERC-20 standard stablecoin reserves on the largest exchange, Binance. After peaking above $50 billion at the end of 2025, this figure corrected to $45.4 billion and has been trading sideways since April 2026. This suggests that "dry powder" for future purchases is gradually accumulating, but without signs of haste or a massive influx of institutional capital.
These two pictures — the depletion of BTC supply on OTC and the slow recovery of stablecoins on exchanges — perfectly complement each other. The market is preparing for a breakout, but a confident surge will require more time. Accumulation is happening on both sides: supply is shrinking, while purchasing power is recovering.
My professional opinion: The current situation resembles a coiled spring. Once the whales complete the accumulation phase, we will see a sharp spike in volatility. Investors should prepare for the next significant impulse to be extremely aggressive, especially against the backdrop of record-low liquidity in the OTC market.