Bitcoin liquidity on the over-the-counter market has plummeted to an all-time low: whales continue to accumulate.
The Bitcoin market is experiencing a unique phase: liquidity of the first cryptocurrency on the over-the-counter (OTC) market has shrunk to an unprecedentedly low level. On-chain data analysis shows that the OTC BTC balance has been steadily declining since 2022, and this trend is not only slowing down but, on the contrary, intensifying. Large investors, the so-called "whales," are actively accumulating coins, washing out supply from OTC platforms.
Structural Shift: How This Cycle Differs from Previous Ones
The current dynamics are radically different from all previous bull cycles. Historically, the OTC balance grew closer to the end of a bull market, when institutions locked in profits. However, we are now observing the exact opposite trend. The total volume of Bitcoin on OTC platforms has decreased by more than 400,000 coins — from 550,000 to approximately 150,000 BTC. This indicates that the accumulation phase by large players is dragging on, and the rate of price increase during the bull market is lower than in past cycles.
In my assessment, this points to a "stretched" and slower nature of the current phase. Whales are not rushing to sell but continue to aggressively buy, creating a supply deficit. Typically, the OTC balance minimum precedes the start of an active rally. Once accumulation is complete, we will see a resumption of growth in this indicator, which will signal the beginning of a full-fledged bull move.
Stablecoin Reserves: Quiet Preparation for a Breakout
Additional confirmation of this hypothesis comes from the dynamics of ERC-20 standard stablecoin reserves on Binance. After peaking above $50 billion at the end of 2025, the volume of free liquidity is gradually recovering and, since April 2026, has been holding in a sideways range around $45.4 billion. The growth in stablecoin reserves indicates that purchasing power is accumulating again on the exchange. However, the recovery pace remains slow, with no signs of urgent or massive capital inflows from large investors.
These two pictures — the depletion of the OTC balance and the slow recovery of stablecoins — complement each other. BTC supply is shrinking, while "dry" capital for future purchases is gradually accumulating. This creates a classic scenario for a powerful price breakout, but its realization will require more time than previously expected.
My expert conclusion: The current situation resembles a coiled spring. Whales are buying up all available supply on the OTC market, while retail investors and institutions are slowly replenishing their stablecoin reserves. When this process is complete, we could witness one of the strongest rallies in Bitcoin's history. However, patience is the key asset in this market phase.