Bitcoin liquidity on the OTC market has collapsed to an all-time low: whales continue aggressive accumulation.
The Bitcoin over-the-counter (OTC) market is experiencing an unprecedented supply squeeze. According to my analysis, BTC liquidity volume on OTC platforms has dropped to an absolute all-time low. This trend carries extremely important signals for all market participants.
Since 2022, the Bitcoin balance on the OTC market has been steadily declining. Large investors, the so-called "whales," are demonstrating a persistent appetite for accumulating coins, which has led to a critical reduction in available supply. Over this period, the OTC balance has decreased by 400,000 BTC — from 550,000 to approximately 150,000 coins. This is a colossal volume that has been withdrawn from free circulation.
New Market Cycle: Accumulation Instead of Distribution
The key difference between the current cycle and previous ones is a radically different structure. In the past, the OTC balance typically began to rise closer to the end of a bull market, when large holders took profits. Now, we are seeing the opposite picture: whale accumulation is dragging on, and the rate of price growth during bullish moves is lower than expected. This points to a "stretched" nature of the current phase, where the accumulation period is significantly longer.
My analysis confirms: the real bullish breakout will only begin after the whales complete their buying spree. Once the OTC balance starts to rise again, it will trigger the start of a new phase of the upward trend. The current low indicates that accumulation is proceeding with unprecedented force, and liquidity in the market has virtually dried up.
Stablecoin Reserves: Quiet Preparation for the Assault
Alongside the depletion of BTC supply on OTC, I am recording an important signal from exchange stablecoin reserves. On Binance, the volume of ERC-20 stablecoins stands at $45.4 billion. After peaking above $50 billion at the end of 2025, this pool of "dry powder" is gradually recovering and has been trading sideways since April 2026.
The growth in stablecoin reserves indicates an accumulation of potential purchasing power on the exchange. However, the recovery pace is slow, with no signs of urgent or massive institutional capital inflows. This suggests that the market is preparing for future purchases but is in no hurry.
My professional opinion: These two pictures — the depletion of the OTC balance and the slow recovery of stablecoins — perfectly complement each other. BTC supply is shrinking, demand from large players remains high, and the "dry powder" for future purchases is building up. All of this forms a classic scenario for a powerful, albeit delayed, rally. The market is waiting for the moment when whale accumulation is complete, and then we will see a true breakout.