Bitcoin liquidity on the OTC market has collapsed to an all-time low: whales continue accumulation
The Bitcoin over-the-counter (OTC) trading market is experiencing unprecedented compression. Analysis of on-chain data shows that the BTC balance on OTC platforms has fallen to an absolute all-time low. This trend, which has been continuously ongoing since 2022, signals a powerful accumulation phase by major players — so-called "whales."
Scale of Liquidity Reduction
According to my analysis, the volume of bitcoins available for large trades on the OTC market has decreased by 400,000 coins — from 550,000 to approximately 150,000 BTC. This massive decline indicates that institutional investors and large holders are actively withdrawing supply from the market, preferring long-term storage over short-term speculation.
It is important to note that the current cycle is radically different from previous ones. In the past, an increase in the OTC balance was typically observed closer to the end of a bull market, when whales began to take profits. Now, we see the opposite picture: accumulation is occurring against the backdrop of a prolonged sideways movement and relatively slow price recovery. This suggests that large investors expect significant growth in the future and are preparing for it in advance.
Stablecoin Reserves: The Other Side of the Coin
Alongside the depletion of the OTC balance, a gradual recovery of stablecoin reserves is being observed on exchanges. In particular, the volume of ERC-20 stablecoins on Binance, after peaking above $50 billion at the end of 2025, has stabilized around $45.4 billion. This indicates that "dry powder" — capital ready for purchases — is gradually accumulating, albeit without signs of urgent or massive inflows.
Thus, we are witnessing a classic compression model: the supply of BTC on the OTC market is shrinking due to aggressive buying by whales, while liquidity in stablecoins is building up on exchanges. These two opposing processes create a powerful foundation for future growth. However, as I have repeatedly noted, time will be needed for a confident breakout of current levels and the start of a new bull rally. The accumulation must be completed, and only then will we see a sustained upward trend.
My professional opinion: The current situation is a "perfect storm" for long-term bulls. The depletion of liquidity on the OTC market, combined with the growth of stablecoin reserves, creates a colossal imbalance between supply and demand. When whales finish accumulating and retail investors become active, we could witness one of the most powerful rallies in Bitcoin's history. Patience is the key asset right now.