The liquidity of Bitcoin on the OTC market has collapsed to an all-time low: whales are in an active accumulation phase.
The Bitcoin over-the-counter (OTC) trading market is experiencing unprecedented compression. Network data shows that the BTC balance on OTC platforms has fallen to the lowest level ever recorded. This trend, which began back in 2022, is only intensifying: large investors—so-called "whales"—continue to actively accumulate coins, draining supply from the market.
Key imbalance of the cycle
Unlike previous bull cycles, where the OTC balance typically grew toward their end, the current phase shows a sustained downward trend. Over the past few years, the volume of bitcoins available for OTC transactions has decreased by 400,000 coins—from 550,000 to approximately 150,000 BTC. This indicates that the accumulation structure in this cycle has fundamentally changed. The accumulation period by large players has been prolonged, and the pace of price increases during the bull market has been more restrained and stretched out over time.
Two sides of the same coin: BTC depletion and stablecoin growth
The picture is complemented by the dynamics of stablecoin reserves on the largest exchange, Binance. After peaking above $50 billion at the end of 2025, the volume of free liquidity in ERC-20 standard stablecoins has corrected and stabilized around $45.4 billion since April 2026. This suggests that "dry powder"—capital ready for purchases—is gradually accumulating on exchanges. However, the recovery is slow, with no signs of massive institutional inflows.
The combination of these two metrics paints a clear picture: BTC supply on the OTC market is being depleted due to aggressive buying by whales, while potential for future demand is building up on exchanges. This is a classic liquidity squeeze scenario preceding a strong move.
My expert opinion
The current historical low in the OTC balance is an extremely bullish signal. Whales are not just holding coins—they are actively removing them from circulation, preparing for the next rally. When this accumulation phase ends and liquidity begins to return to the market, we will likely witness explosive growth. However, a confident breakout of current levels will require time and capital consolidation. Patience is the key weapon in this game.