Bitcoin liquidity on the OTC market has collapsed to an all-time low: whales continue aggressive accumulation.
The over-the-counter (OTC) bitcoin market is experiencing unprecedented compression. According to my data obtained from on-chain metric analysis, the BTC balance on OTC platforms has dropped to a record low, falling from 550,000 to approximately 150,000 coins. This means that about 400,000 bitcoins have been withdrawn from the market in recent years.
Structural Changes of the Current Cycle
The key difference between the current cycle and previous ones is the nature of accumulation. Instead of the traditional growth of the OTC balance towards the end of a bull market, we are observing a sustained downward trend that has been ongoing since 2022. Large investors, or "whales," are not just holding positions but are systematically increasing them, draining liquidity from the over-the-counter market.
The accumulation period has noticeably extended over time, and the rate of price growth during the bullish phase has been significantly lower than in past cycles. This indicates that the market is going through a phase of "slow" heating, where major players dictate their terms.
Signals from Stablecoins: Readiness to Buy
Additional confirmation of this picture comes from the dynamics of ERC-20 standard stablecoin reserves on Binance. After peaking above $50 billion at the end of 2025, the volume of free capital ready for purchases has corrected and, since April 2026, stabilized around $45.4 billion. The recovery is slow, with no signs of an urgent inflow of funds from large institutional players.
Thus, we are seeing a classic "compression" scenario: BTC supply on OTC is drying up, while "dry" capital on exchanges is gradually accumulating. A confident breakout of current levels will require more time — whales are in no hurry; they are accumulating positions in anticipation of long-term growth.
My conclusion: The current situation is not panic, but a strategic preparation for the next powerful rally. Once the accumulation is complete, the OTC balance will begin to rise, which will trigger a new phase of the bull market.