Bitcoin liquidity on the OTC market is drying up: whales are completing a historic accumulation phase
The Bitcoin over-the-counter (OTC) trading market is experiencing unprecedented compression. On-chain data analysis shows that the BTC balance on OTC platforms has dropped to an all-time low. This is direct evidence that large players — "whales" — are actively accumulating coins, removing them from circulation.
According to my calculations based on network data, since 2022, the Bitcoin OTC balance has decreased by more than 400,000 coins — from 550,000 to approximately 150,000 BTC. This trend is radically different from all previous market cycles. Typically, we observed an increase in OTC balances closer to the end of a bull market, when large holders took profits. Now, we see the opposite picture: supply on the over-the-counter market is systematically being depleted.
Structural Cycle Changes: Accumulation Instead of Distribution
The current cycle demonstrates unique characteristics. Instead of the traditional distribution of coins at the peak, we are witnessing a prolonged period of accumulation. The rate of price increase during this bull rally has been significantly lower than in 2017 or 2021. This indicates that the market is moving not due to speculative frenzy, but under pressure from fundamental demand from institutional investors.
The key indicator here is the behavior of the OTC balance. Once the whales complete the accumulation phase, we should see a reversal of this metric. An increase in the OTC balance will signal the start of a true bull rally, when large holders begin distributing their assets to new buyers. The current low suggests that accumulation is in full swing, and liquidity in the market is rapidly drying up.
Stablecoin Reserves on Binance: A Counter Trend
In parallel, another important process is unfolding. ERC-20 standard stablecoin reserves on the Binance exchange are gradually recovering. After reaching a peak above $50 billion in late 2025, this metric corrected and has stabilized around $45.4 billion since April 2026.
This suggests that "dry powder" — capital ready for purchases — is accumulating on exchanges. However, the pace of recovery remains slow, with no signs of a massive influx of funds from retail investors. Thus, we are observing a classic picture of preparation for a major move: BTC supply is shrinking, while purchasing power in stablecoins is slowly but steadily recovering.
My conclusion: the market is in a unique phase. The depletion of OTC liquidity, combined with the growth of stablecoin reserves, creates a volatile mix. However, a confident breakout of current levels will require time. The key trigger is the completion of whale accumulation, after which we will see a resumption of OTC balance growth and, likely, a powerful bullish impulse.