The liquidity of bitcoin on the OTC market has fallen to an all-time low: whales are not leaving coins for sellers.
The Bitcoin market is experiencing a unique period. On-chain data analysis shows that liquidity of the leading cryptocurrency on the over-the-counter (OTC) market has dropped to its lowest level ever recorded. This is not just a local decline — this trend has been ongoing since 2022, and we are now witnessing its culmination.
The key metric — the OTC Bitcoin balance — has collapsed from 550,000 to 150,000 coins. This means that large players, the so-called "whales," continue to actively buy up the supply that sellers are offering on OTC platforms. Supply is drying up, while demand from institutional and large private investors remains high.
A New Cycle: Slow but Powerful
It is important to understand that the current market cycle is radically different from previous ones. Typically, at the end of a bull rally, we would see an increase in the OTC balance: whales would start taking profits by offering coins for sale. Now we are seeing the opposite picture — the balance is steadily declining. This indicates that the accumulation phase has been prolonged, and the pace of price growth within the bull trend has been significantly lower than in past cycles.
In my estimation, we are observing a "stretched" accumulation process over time. Whales are in no rush to sell; instead, they are patiently buying up everything that appears on the market. A true bullish breakout will likely only begin after this accumulation phase is fully complete. The all-time low in the OTC balance is a powerful signal that market liquidity is nearly exhausted and seller pressure is minimal.
Stablecoin Reserves: Quiet Preparation
The picture is complemented by the situation with ERC-20 standard stablecoin reserves on the largest exchange, Binance. After peaking above $50 billion at the end of 2025, these reserves now stand at around $45.4 billion and have been in a sideways range since April 2026. This suggests that "dry powder" — capital ready for purchases — is gradually recovering, but without signs of haste or a massive influx of funds from institutions.
Thus, we are seeing a classic accumulation picture on both sides: BTC supply on the OTC market is shrinking, while potential purchasing power in stablecoins is slowly recovering. However, for a confident upward market breakout, as analysts rightly note, more time will be needed. The market is maturing, and this process requires patience.
My opinion: The current situation is one of the strongest bullish signals I have seen in recent years. The depletion of liquidity on the OTC market, combined with growing stablecoin reserves, creates a "spring" that, at the slightest catalyst, could trigger a powerful rally. Investors who are in a position should hold on — the patience of the whales could pay off handsomely.