The liquidity of Bitcoin on the OTC market has collapsed to an all-time low: whales continue to accumulate.
The Bitcoin over-the-counter (OTC) liquidity market is experiencing unprecedented compression. According to on-chain analytics, the BTC balance on OTC platforms has dropped to the lowest level ever recorded, signaling powerful accumulation by large players.
Since 2022, we have observed a sustained downward trend: the OTC balance has decreased by 400,000 coins — from 550,000 to approximately 150,000 BTC. This is not just a correction, but a fundamental change in market structure. In previous cycles, OTC reserves typically increased near the end of a bull rally, when large holders took profits. However, the current cycle shows the opposite dynamic: whales are not selling, but aggressively buying.
New Cycle: Slow Accumulation and Extended Growth Phase
The key difference between this cycle and previous ones is its duration and structure. The accumulation period by large investors has been prolonged, and the growth rate during the bull market has been noticeably lower than in the past. This indicates that we are dealing with a slower but more sustainable upward trend.
According to my analysis, it is the depletion of the OTC balance that is the main driver of future growth. Once whales complete the accumulation phase, liquidity will begin to return to the OTC market, triggering a new rally. The current liquidity low suggests that the accumulation process is proceeding with unprecedented strength.
Stablecoin Reserves: Accumulation of 'Dry Powder'
In parallel with the decline in OTC balances, a gradual recovery of stablecoin reserves is being observed on exchanges. On Binance, the volume of ERC-20 standard stablecoins stands at $45.4 billion, below the peak of $50 billion at the end of 2025, but steadily holding in a sideways range since April 2026.
This indicates that 'dry powder' — potential purchasing power — is accumulating on exchanges. However, the recovery rate is slow, with no signs of massive capital inflows from institutions. These two pictures complement each other: the supply of BTC on the OTC market is being depleted due to whale buying, while free liquidity is gradually accumulating on exchanges for future purchases.
My conclusion: The market is in a unique phase where large players are accumulating assets and liquidity is contracting. This creates the conditions for a powerful bullish move, but more time will be needed for a confident breakout of current levels. Investors should prepare for a prolonged but potentially very profitable cycle.