Bitcoin liquidity on the OTC market has plummeted to an all-time low: whales continue to accumulate.
The Bitcoin over-the-counter (OTC) trading market is experiencing a unique period. According to my analysis of on-chain data, BTC liquidity on OTC platforms has shrunk to an unprecedentedly low level. The balance of Bitcoin on these platforms, where major players conduct trades directly, bypassing public exchanges, has been steadily declining since 2022 and has now reached an all-time low.
Structural changes in the current cycle
The data shows that the total volume of BTC on the OTC market has decreased by 400,000 coins — from 550,000 to approximately 150,000. This fundamentally distinguishes the current cycle from previous ones. Typically, the balance on OTC platforms grows closer to the end of a bull market, when large holders begin to take profits. However, we are now observing the opposite trend: whales are actively accumulating rather than selling.
The accumulation period by institutional investors has noticeably lengthened, and the rate of price increase during the bull phase has been lower than in past cycles. This points to a "slowed" and "stretched" nature of the current rally. In my assessment, a full-fledged surge will only begin after major players complete their buying spree. The drop in the OTC balance to a minimum is a clear signal that accumulation is proceeding at a record pace, and the free supply on the market is rapidly depleting.
Stablecoin reserves: quiet preparation
Additional confirmation of this picture comes from the dynamics of ERC-20 standard stablecoin reserves on Binance. After peaking above $50 billion at the end of 2025, the volume of "dry" capital ready for purchases has corrected and, since April 2026, has been holding in a sideways range around $45.4 billion. The recovery pace is slow, with no signs of an urgent influx of funds from large investors.
Thus, we are observing a classic preparation for a breakout: BTC supply on the OTC market is contracting due to aggressive buying by whales, while liquidity in stablecoins is gradually accumulating on exchanges. These two metrics work in unison, creating the prerequisites for a powerful move. However, as I have repeatedly noted, the market will need more time than expected for a confident breakout. Whales dictate their own pace, and retail investors can only watch this process unfold.