The liquidity of Bitcoin on the OTC market has plummeted to an all-time low: whales are preparing for a surge.
The Bitcoin over-the-counter (OTC) market is showing a unique picture that I have not observed in any previous cycle. BTC reserves on OTC platforms — where large players conduct deals directly, bypassing public exchanges — have dropped to an absolute all-time low. This is direct evidence that institutional investors and so-called "whales" are in an active accumulation phase, and this process is in full swing.
Unprecedented Reserve Depletion
Since 2022, the volume of Bitcoin available on the OTC market has been steadily declining. During this time, the balance has decreased by 400,000 coins: from 550,000 to approximately 150,000 BTC. Traditionally, in past cycles, we saw an increase in the OTC balance closer to the end of the bull market, when whales began to take profits. However, the current dynamics are completely turned upside down. The accumulation period is dragging on, and the rate of price growth during the bull phase has been significantly lower than in 2017 or 2021. This indicates that the market is moving according to a "stretched" and more mature scenario.
Stablecoins Are Accumulating Dry Powder
Additional confirmation of this hypothesis comes from the dynamics of ERC-20 standard stablecoin reserves on Binance. After peaking above $50 billion at the end of 2025, the volume of free liquidity partially recovered and has stabilized around $45.4 billion since April 2026. This suggests that "dry powder" for future purchases is slowly but surely accumulating. However, there are no signs of haste or a massive influx of capital from large players yet — the process is gradual.
Thus, we are observing a classic picture from an on-chain analytics perspective: BTC supply on OTC is drying up due to aggressive buying by whales, while potential for a new rally is building up on exchanges. The real bull run, in my estimation, will only begin after the whales complete their accumulation and the OTC balance starts to rise again — but already against the backdrop of profit-taking. The current low is a powerful signal that I interpret as preparation for a significant price movement. Investors should closely monitor this indicator: when liquidity on OTC dries up, the pressure on price usually only intensifies.