The liquidity of Bitcoin on the OTC market has collapsed to an all-time low: whales continue to accumulate.
The Bitcoin over-the-counter (OTC) market is experiencing unprecedented compression. According to my on-chain data analysis, the total BTC balance on OTC platforms has dropped to the lowest level ever recorded. This trend has been persistent and ongoing since 2022, despite changes in market phases.
The key conclusion I draw from this dynamic is that institutional investors and large holders ("whales") are in an active accumulation phase. Over the past few years, the volume of available Bitcoin on the OTC market has decreased by approximately 400,000 coins — from 550,000 to roughly 150,000 BTC. This represents a massive withdrawal of supply from public circulation.
Structural changes in the current cycle
The current market cycle is fundamentally different from previous ones. In the past, an increase in the OTC balance typically signaled the approach of a bull market peak, when large players began to take profits. Now we are seeing the opposite picture: the balance is steadily declining, indicating a prolonged accumulation phase.
The rate of price growth during this bull rally has been significantly lower than in historical analogs. The accumulation process has stretched over time, suggesting a more measured and strategic approach by large capital. In my assessment, the true rally will only begin after whales complete the current buying phase. Once the OTC balance starts to rise, it will signal the start of a new wave of growth.
Stablecoin reserves: an additional indicator
Analysis of ERC-20 standard stablecoin reserves on the largest exchange, Binance, confirms this picture. After peaking above $50 billion in late 2025, the volume of free liquidity corrected and has stabilized in a sideways range around $45.4 billion since April 2026. This indicates a gradual, but unhurried, recovery of purchasing power on the exchange.
We are seeing a classic "two-sided accumulation" picture: BTC supply on the OTC market is being depleted due to active buying by whales, while "dry powder" in the form of stablecoins is slowly being replenished. However, for a decisive breakout of current levels, as the data shows, more time is needed to accumulate sufficient liquidity volume.
My professional opinion: The synchronous decline in the Bitcoin OTC balance and the stabilization of stablecoin reserves at high levels form a powerful foundation for the next stage of growth. The market is preparing for a move, but investors should be patient — the classic "parabolic" growth will likely begin after large players fully complete their accumulation and start moving assets to the open market.