The liquidity of Bitcoin on the OTC market has collapsed to an all-time low: whales continue aggressive accumulation.
The Bitcoin market is experiencing a unique phase, which I, as an analyst at cryptalist.io, assess as one of the clearest signals of an impending supply deficit. On-chain metric data shows that the liquidity of the first cryptocurrency on the over-the-counter (OTC) market has collapsed to an absolute all-time low. Since 2022, the BTC balance on OTC platforms has been steadily declining, and we are now witnessing a critical point: large investors, so-called "whales," continue to aggressively accumulate coins, literally sucking liquidity out of this segment.
This fundamentally distinguishes the current cycle from all previous ones. In the past, an increase in the OTC balance was characteristic of the final stages of a bull market, when institutions took profits. Now, we see the opposite trend — the balance is steadily falling. During the whales' accumulation period, the volume of BTC on the OTC market has decreased by 400,000 coins — from 550,000 to approximately 150,000. This indicates an unprecedented strength of demand from large capital.
Structural changes in the cycle
The accumulation phase has been prolonged this time, and the growth rate during the bull market has been lower than before. This points to a slower but more sustainable nature of the current rally. We are not seeing the classic explosive growth — instead, whales are methodically collecting supply, creating a "compressed" market. Once this accumulation stage is complete, in my assessment, we will witness a powerful upward impulse, supported by extremely low liquidity.
Signal from stablecoins on Binance
Additional confirmation of this hypothesis comes from the dynamics of ERC-20 stablecoin reserves on the Binance exchange. After peaking above $50 billion at the end of 2025, the volume of free liquidity (capital ready for purchases) corrected and has stabilized around $45.4 billion since April 2026. The recovery is slow, with no signs of massive capital inflows from large players. This paints a picture of "double accumulation": BTC supply on OTC is being depleted due to whale buying, while dry capital for future purchases is gradually recovering on exchanges.
My expert opinion: the combination of record-low OTC liquidity and the slow but steady recovery of stablecoins on exchanges is a classic precursor to a strong move. The market is coiling like a spring. Whales have already placed their bet, and now it is only a matter of time. Once the accumulation is complete, we will see a sharp rise that could catch most retail traders, accustomed to sluggish dynamics, off guard. Patience here is the key asset.