Bitcoin liquidity on the over-the-counter market has collapsed to an all-time low: whales are in aggressive accumulation mode
The Bitcoin market is experiencing a unique phase: liquidity of the first cryptocurrency on the over-the-counter (OTC) market has shrunk to an unprecedentedly low level. My analysis of on-chain data shows that the BTC balance on OTC platforms has been continuously declining since 2022 and has now reached an all-time low. This is direct evidence that large investors, so-called "whales," continue to actively accumulate coins, removing them from open sale.
Typically, in previous market cycles, an increase in the OTC balance was observed closer to the end of a bull rally, when large holders began to take profits. However, the current cycle shows fundamentally different dynamics. Instead of growth, we see a steady downward trend. Over the past few years, the volume of bitcoins available for large direct transactions between parties has decreased by approximately 400,000 coins — from 550,000 to about 150,000 BTC. This indicates a radically changed market structure.
A Slower but Powerful Accumulation Cycle
The accumulation phase by institutional and large private investors in this cycle has significantly lengthened. The rate of price increase during the current bull market has been lower than in previous periods, pointing to a slower and more extended nature of growth. Whales are not rushing to sell but continue to build up their positions. Once this process is complete, we will likely witness the start of a true, powerful bull rally. At that point, the OTC balance will begin to increase again, signaling the start of distribution.
Signal from Stablecoins: Powder Remains Dry
Additional confirmation of this hypothesis comes from the analysis of stablecoin reserves on the largest exchange, Binance. The volume of ERC-20 standard stablecoins has stabilized around $45.4 billion after peaking above $50 billion at the end of 2025. Since April 2026, this indicator has been in a sideways range, indicating a gradual, rather than explosive, recovery in purchasing power.
An increase in stablecoin reserves on the exchange points to the accumulation of potential "dry powder" for future purchases. However, the pace of this recovery remains slow, with no signs of urgency or massive capital inflows from large players.
Thus, we are witnessing a classic picture of compression: the supply of BTC on the OTC market is being depleted due to aggressive buying by whales, while liquidity in stablecoins is gradually accumulating on exchanges. This creates a powerful foundation for future growth, but for a confident breakout of current levels, the market will need more time for consolidation and to build sufficient momentum.
My professional opinion: The current situation is one of the strongest bullish signals in recent years. The combination of an all-time low in OTC liquidity and stable stablecoin accumulation indicates that we are in the final stage of capital redistribution before a major upward move. Ignoring this signal would be a serious mistake.