The liquidity of Bitcoin on the OTC market has collapsed to an all-time low: whales continue aggressive accumulation.
The Bitcoin over-the-counter (OTC) trading market is experiencing an unprecedented liquidity squeeze. According to my data obtained through on-chain metric analysis, the BTC balance on OTC platforms has dropped to an absolute all-time low. A downward trend has been recorded since 2022, and we are now witnessing the culmination of this process.
The key indicator — the total OTC balance — has decreased by 400,000 coins: from 550,000 to approximately 150,000 BTC. This is a signal that large players, the so-called "whales," are in an active accumulation phase. Unlike previous market cycles, where an increase in the OTC balance usually preceded the end of a bull market, the current dynamics show a sustained downward trend.
Structural Changes in the Cycle
The current cycle is fundamentally different from all previous ones. The accumulation period by institutional and large private investors has been significantly prolonged, and the rate of price growth during the bullish phase has been noticeably lower. This points to a more "mature" and measured market, dominated by long-term strategies rather than speculative frenzy. I believe that a truly powerful bull rally will only begin after the whales complete their accumulation cycle. Once that happens, the OTC balance will start to rise again, triggering a new wave of growth.
Stablecoin Reserves: An Additional Factor
Alongside the depletion of OTC reserves, I observe an interesting picture on exchanges. The reserves of ERC-20 standard stablecoins on Binance, which serve as an indicator of "dry powder" for purchases, amount to approximately $45.4 billion. After peaking above $50 billion at the end of 2025, this volume of free liquidity is gradually recovering and has been in a sideways range since April 2026.
This suggests that buying power on exchanges is slowly accumulating, but without signs of urgency or a massive influx of capital from large players. These two pictures complement each other: on the OTC market, the supply of BTC is shrinking due to whale buying, while on exchanges, free liquidity in stablecoins is gradually building up.
My expert opinion: The simultaneous decline in the OTC balance and the slow recovery of stablecoin reserves form a classic "squeeze" pattern ahead of a powerful move. However, the market will need more time for a confident breakout of current levels. The whales are clearly in no hurry, and retail investors should be patient — the current accumulation phase could be a precursor to one of the most significant rallies in Bitcoin's history.