The liquidity of bitcoin on the OTC market has collapsed to an all-time low: whales continue aggressive buying.
The Bitcoin over-the-counter (OTC) trading market is experiencing a unique compression. The volume of available liquidity on these platforms has dropped to record lows, directly indicating a powerful accumulation phase by institutional players and large investors.
My analysis of on-chain metrics shows that the BTC balance on OTC platforms has been continuously declining since 2022. Over this period, reserves have decreased by a colossal 400,000 coins — from 550,000 to approximately 150,000 BTC. This suggests that "whales" are not just holding positions, but are systematically removing supply from the market.
Fundamental difference of the current cycle
The key difference between the current bull cycle and previous ones is its slow and extended nature. Typically, we see an increase in the OTC balance closer to the market peak, when large holders begin to take profits. Now, however, the trend remains steadily downward. The accumulation period is dragging on, and the rate of price growth during rallies is lower than in past cycles.
The structure of the current accumulation phase is fundamentally different. It is deeper and more prolonged. This indicates that the true explosive growth will only begin after the "whales" complete their buying spree. Once this happens, the OTC balance will start to rise again, signaling the beginning of distribution.
What stablecoin reserves indicate
Additional confirmation of my conclusions comes from the dynamics of ERC-20 standard stablecoin reserves on Binance. They currently stand at around $45.4 billion. After peaking above $50 billion at the end of 2025, this pool of "dry powder" — capital ready for purchases — began to gradually recover and has been trading sideways since April 2026.
The growth in stablecoin reserves indicates an accumulation of potential purchasing power on the exchange. However, the recovery pace is slow, with no signs of urgency or massive inflows from large investors.
These two pictures complement each other perfectly. On the OTC market, BTC supply is being depleted due to whale buying, while on exchanges, free liquidity in stablecoins is slowly accumulating. This points to accumulation on both sides: supply is shrinking, and capital for future purchases is recovering — but the market needs more time for a confident breakout.
My professional opinion: The current situation is a classic sign of preparation for a powerful bullish move. When the "whales" finish accumulation and the volume of stablecoins reaches a critical mass, we will see a sharp spike in volatility. Long-term oriented investors should consider current levels as a zone of increased attractiveness for entry, despite the prolonged consolidation period.