Bitcoin liquidity on the OTC market has collapsed to an all-time low: whales are absorbing supply.
The Bitcoin over-the-counter (OTC) market is experiencing unprecedented compression. Analytical data records a record decline in liquidity: the BTC balance on OTC platforms has dropped to the lowest level ever observed. Since 2022, this indicator has been steadily falling, indicating aggressive accumulation by the largest investors.
Key Figures and Dynamics
Over the past few years, the volume of Bitcoin available for large transactions outside public exchanges has decreased by 400,000 coins — from 550,000 to approximately 150,000 BTC. This is a colossal withdrawal of supply, unparalleled in previous market cycles. The structure of the current bull rally is fundamentally different from past ones: accumulation periods by "whales" have become longer, and the pace of price growth has been less rapid.
The Paradox of the Current Cycle
Typically, in the final phase of a bull market, the OTC balance begins to rise as large holders take profits. Currently, we are seeing the opposite picture — the downward trend continues. This suggests that institutional and large private investors are not only refraining from selling but are actively increasing their positions. In my assessment, the market is in a phase of "hidden accumulation," where real demand significantly exceeds visible supply.
The true bullish momentum will likely only begin after the accumulation process is complete. Once the whales stop buying coins, the OTC balance will start to recover, signaling the start of a new aggressive rally.
Stablecoin Reserves: A Counterflow of Liquidity
Parallel to the depletion of OTC BTC reserves, an opposite trend is forming on exchanges. ERC-20 standard stablecoin reserves on Binance have recovered to $45.4 billion after peaking above $50 billion at the end of 2025. Since April 2026, this indicator has stabilized in a sideways range.
This means that "dry powder" — capital ready to flow into the market — is gradually accumulating on exchanges. However, the pace of recovery remains slow, with no signs of haste from major players. These two pictures — the decline of BTC on OTC and the rise of stablecoins on exchanges — complement each other: supply is shrinking while purchasing power is slowly recovering.
Expert Conclusion
The current situation is a classic sign of powerful accumulation ahead of a major move. Whales are taking Bitcoin off the market, while retail investors and small traders remain on the sidelines. Time will be needed for a confident breakout of current levels, but the fundamental prerequisites for growth remain extremely strong. Once the stablecoin reserve reaches a critical mass and OTC reserves are exhausted, we will witness a new wave of the bull trend that could exceed the expectations of most market participants.