Bitcoin liquidity on the OTC market has collapsed to an all-time low: whales continue aggressive accumulation.
The Bitcoin over-the-counter (OTC) trading market is experiencing an unprecedented liquidity squeeze. Based on my analysis of on-chain metrics, the BTC balance on OTC platforms has dropped to an absolute all-time low. This trend has been ongoing since 2022, and the current situation signals a powerful accumulation phase by large investors.
Key Figures: A 73% Decline
A reduction in the OTC balance of over 400,000 coins has been recorded — from 550,000 to approximately 150,000 BTC. This is a colossal volume that has been absorbed by institutional players. It is important to emphasize that the current cycle is fundamentally different from previous ones. In the past, an increase in the OTC balance was traditionally observed closer to the end of a bull market, when large holders began to take profits. Now, we are seeing the exact opposite picture: a downward trend in OTC reserves persists despite high prices.
Cycle Structure: Accumulation Instead of Distribution
The accumulation period by whales is dragging on, and the pace of price growth during the current bull rally has been noticeably slower than in 2021. This points to a "stretched" and more gradual growth phase. In my assessment, the real acceleration will only begin after large players complete their buying spree. The current OTC balance low is a clear signal that market supply is drying up, while whale appetite is only increasing.
Stablecoins on Binance: Powder Remains Dry
An analysis of ERC-20 standard stablecoin reserves on Binance complements this picture. After reaching a peak above $50 billion at the end of 2025, the volume of free liquidity corrected and has stabilized around $45.4 billion since April 2026. This suggests that potential buying power on the exchange is recovering, but at an extremely slow pace, with no signs of massive capital inflows from institutions.
Expert Conclusion: Two metrics — the depletion of OTC reserves and the slow recovery of stablecoins — form a classic bullish setup. BTC supply is shrinking, while "dry powder" for future purchases is gradually accumulating. However, for a confident breakout of current levels and the start of a parabolic phase, the market will need more time and, likely, an additional catalyst. I expect that after the whales complete their accumulation, we will see a sharp increase in the OTC balance, which will trigger a new rally.