Bitcoin liquidity on the OTC market has reached an all-time low: whales are actively accumulating the asset.
The Bitcoin over-the-counter (OTC) trading market is experiencing a unique compression. Analysis of on-chain data shows that the BTC balance on OTC platforms has dropped to a record low in history. This trend has been persistent, continuing since 2022, signaling large-scale accumulation by major players — so-called "whales."
According to my calculations, the volume of available Bitcoin on the OTC market has decreased by 400,000 coins: from 550,000 to approximately 150,000 BTC. This is an unprecedented decline that fundamentally differs from the structure of previous market cycles. In the past, the OTC balance typically began to rise closer to the end of a bull rally, when whales took profits. However, in the current cycle, we are seeing the opposite picture: accumulation continues, and liquidity is steadily falling.
The key takeaway here is that the accumulation phase by large investors is dragging on. The rate of price increase during the current bull market has been significantly lower than in previous cycles. This indicates that the market is moving slower but more thoroughly. The real breakout, in my assessment, will only begin after the whales complete their accumulation process. Once that happens, the OTC balance will start to rise again, triggering a new wave of growth.
Stablecoin Reserves on Binance: The Second Key Signal
Additional confirmation of this hypothesis comes from the dynamics of ERC-20 standard stablecoin reserves on Binance. After peaking above $50 billion at the end of 2025, the volume of free liquidity (capital ready for purchases) is gradually recovering. Since April 2026, this indicator has stabilized in a sideways range around $45.4 billion.
The growth in stablecoin reserves indicates that potential purchasing power is accumulating on the exchange. However, the pace of recovery remains slow, with no signs of urgency or a massive influx of funds from institutional investors. This paints a picture of "double accumulation": BTC supply on the OTC market is shrinking, while "dry capital" for future purchases is slowly recovering.
My expert conclusion: The current situation resembles a coiled spring. On one hand, we see liquidity depletion in the OTC market due to active buying by whales. On the other hand, free capital in stablecoins is accumulating on exchanges. However, for a confident breakout, the market will need more time. Investors should prepare for a prolonged consolidation phase before the next significant upward movement.