Bitcoin liquidity on the OTC market has plummeted to an all-time low: whales have intensified accumulation.
The Bitcoin over-the-counter (OTC) trading market is experiencing unprecedented compression. According to my data, the total BTC balance on OTC platforms has dropped to a record low in history. This trend has been persistent and ongoing since 2022, despite local price fluctuations.
The key driver of this process is aggressive accumulation by large investors, the so-called "whales." They continue to withdraw coins from OTC platforms, leading to a critical reduction in available supply. It is important to emphasize that the current cycle is fundamentally different from previous ones: typically, the OTC balance increases closer to the peak of a bull market, when large players begin to take profits. However, we are now seeing the opposite picture — the trend remains downward.
Scale of the Decline and Structural Changes
According to my analysis, over the past few years, the volume of Bitcoin on the OTC market has decreased by 400,000 coins — from 550,000 to approximately 150,000 BTC. This is a massive drop, indicating that the accumulation phase is dragging on, and the growth rate during the current bull rally has been significantly lower than in past cycles. The market is moving slower and is more stretched out over time.
I believe that the real rally will only begin after the whales complete their accumulation process. Historically, at the start of active growth, the OTC balance begins to increase again. The current low, in my assessment, signals that accumulation is proceeding at a record pace, and liquidity in the market has virtually dried up.
Stablecoin Reserves as an Additional Indicator
The picture is complemented by an analysis of ERC-20 standard stablecoin reserves on the Binance exchange. Currently, they stand at $45.4 billion. After peaking above $50 billion at the end of 2025, this volume of "dry powder" for future purchases is gradually recovering and has been moving sideways since April 2026.
The increase in stablecoin reserves indicates that potential purchasing power is once again accumulating on the exchange. However, the pace of recovery is slow, with no signs of urgency or a massive influx of funds from large investors. These two pictures — the depletion of BTC on OTC and the recovery of stablecoins on exchanges — complement each other. Bitcoin supply is shrinking, while dry capital for future purchases is slowly recovering.
My professional opinion: The market is in a unique "calm before the storm" phase. Whales continue to accumulate, but a confident breakout to the upside requires more time for consolidation and the accumulation of sufficient liquidity. This is not a bearish signal, but rather an indication that the preparation for the next major move is dragging on, and retail investors should be patient.