The liquidity of Bitcoin on the OTC market has collapsed to an all-time low: whales continue aggressive accumulation.
The Bitcoin over-the-counter (OTC) market is experiencing unprecedented compression. According to my data, the total BTC balance on OTC platforms has dropped to the lowest level ever recorded. This metric has been steadily declining since 2022, and the current trend indicates that major players — so-called "whales" — continue to actively accumulate coins, removing them from the available supply.
Typically, in previous market cycles, an increase in the OTC balance was observed closer to the end of the bullish phase. However, the current cycle shows a fundamentally different picture. Instead of the usual buildup of reserves on OTC platforms, we see a sustained downward trend. This suggests that the structure of supply and demand has fundamentally changed.
Scale of the Decline and Cycle Uniqueness
According to my analysis, the volume of Bitcoin on the OTC market has decreased by 400,000 coins — from 550,000 to approximately 150,000 BTC. This is a massive withdrawal of liquidity. The accumulation period for large investors has noticeably lengthened, and the rate of price increase during the bull market has been lower than in previous cycles. We are observing a "stretched" accumulation phase over time, indicating a high degree of patience and confidence among institutional players.
I believe that a full-fledged bull rally will only begin after the whales complete the current accumulation phase. Once this process ends, the OTC balance will start to rise again, signaling the beginning of distribution. The current low is a clear indicator that accumulation is proceeding at a record pace, and free liquidity in the market has virtually dried up.
Signals from Stablecoins
Additional confirmation of this hypothesis comes from the dynamics of ERC-20 standard stablecoin reserves on Binance. After peaking above $50 billion at the end of 2025, the volume of free capital ready for purchases corrected and, since April 2026, has stabilized in a sideways range around $45.4 billion.
The increase in stablecoin reserves indicates a gradual recovery of purchasing power on the exchange. However, unlike past cycles, this process is slow, with no signs of haste or a massive inflow of funds from large investors. We are seeing a classic picture of "accumulation from both sides": BTC supply is shrinking, while "dry powder" for future purchases is being replenished — but the market will need more time for a confident breakout.
My professional opinion: The simultaneous depletion of OTC reserves and the slow accumulation of stablecoins create ideal prerequisites for a powerful price movement. The only question is when the "trigger" will be pulled. The current situation resembles a compressed spring — the longer the accumulation phase lasts, the stronger the subsequent impulse may be.