The liquidity of Bitcoin on the OTC market has plummeted to an all-time low: whales continue to accumulate.
The bitcoin over-the-counter (OTC) trading market is experiencing an unprecedented liquidity squeeze. The total BTC balance on OTC platforms has dropped to an absolute all-time low. This trend, which began back in 2022, continues to intensify amid aggressive accumulation of coins by large investors.
On-chain data analysis shows that over the past few years, the volume of bitcoins available for OTC transactions has collapsed by 400,000 coins — from 550,000 to approximately 150,000 BTC. Such a sharp reduction in supply on the OTC market is a unique signal that fundamentally distinguishes the current cycle from all previous ones.
New Cycle Structure: Accumulation Instead of Distribution
In the classic bull market model, we are accustomed to seeing OTC balances rise closer to its peak — when large holders begin to take profits. However, we are now seeing the exact opposite picture: whales are not selling but continue to build their positions. The accumulation period is dragging on, and the rate of price increase during the bull phase has been significantly lower than in past cycles.
This suggests that the market is going through a slower and more prolonged consolidation phase. Major players are patiently collecting coins, resisting the temptation to quickly lock in profits. In my assessment, the current low in OTC balances indicates that accumulation is proceeding at a record pace, and market liquidity has virtually dried up. The real bull run will only begin after the whales complete this process.
Stablecoin Reserves on Binance: Quiet Preparation
Additional confirmation of this hypothesis comes from the dynamics of ERC-20 stablecoin reserves on Binance. After peaking above $50 billion at the end of 2025, this volume of free liquidity (capital ready for purchases) is gradually recovering and has been trading sideways at around $45.4 billion since April 2026.
The growth in stablecoin reserves indicates that purchasing power is once again accumulating on the exchange. However, the pace of recovery remains slow, with no signs of urgency or a massive influx of funds from large investors. This suggests that the market is not yet ready for a sharp breakout.
My expert assessment: These two pictures — the depletion of OTC balances and the slow accumulation of stablecoins — perfectly complement each other. BTC supply is shrinking, while "dry" capital for future purchases is gradually recovering. However, a confident breakout of current levels will require more time and, likely, an additional catalyst to trigger a massive inflow of liquidity into the market.