The liquidity of Bitcoin on the OTC market has collapsed to an all-time low: whales continue aggressive accumulation.
The Bitcoin over-the-counter (OTC) trading market is experiencing unprecedented liquidity compression. According to my data obtained through on-chain metric analysis, the BTC balance on OTC platforms has dropped to the lowest values ever recorded. This trend, which began back in 2022, continues to intensify, signaling a massive concentration of coins in the hands of the largest players.
The current situation is radically different from past market cycles. Typically, during a bull market, we observed an increase in OTC balances as whales took profits. However, in this cycle, the opposite is true: despite the price increase, reserves on OTC platforms are steadily declining. Over the past few years, the volume of available Bitcoin on the OTC market has decreased by 400,000 coins — from 550,000 to approximately 150,000 BTC.
Structural Changes in the Cycle
This indicates a fundamental shift in the behavior of large investors. The accumulation period is dragging on, and the growth rates during bullish phases are lower than in previous cycles. We are witnessing a slower and more prolonged consolidation process. Whales are in no hurry to take profits — on the contrary, they continue to increase their positions, buying up supply from the market.
Simultaneously with the depletion of OTC balances, a counter-trend is forming on exchanges. ERC-20 standard stablecoin reserves on Binance, after peaking above $50 billion at the end of 2025, have stabilized around $45.4 billion. This indicates a gradual recovery of "dry powder" — capital ready for purchases. However, the pace of this recovery remains slow, with no signs of haste from institutional players.
These two pictures — falling BTC supply on OTC and growing stablecoin reserves — create a classic compression scenario. Supply is shrinking, while purchasing power is slowly recovering. In my assessment, this accumulation on both sides is one of the strongest in history. A true bullish breakout will likely only begin after whales complete the aggressive accumulation phase and market liquidity is completely exhausted.
My conclusion: the current dynamics are a powerful bullish signal in the long term. However, for a confident breakout, the market will need more time for consolidation and accumulation of sufficient liquidity from buyers. Patience remains the key asset in this cycle.