The liquidity of Bitcoin on the OTC market has plummeted to an all-time low: whales continue aggressive accumulation.
The Bitcoin over-the-counter (OTC) trading market is experiencing unprecedented liquidity compression. According to my on-chain data analysis, the BTC balance on OTC platforms has plummeted to an all-time low. This trend, which began back in 2022, is only intensifying: large investors, so-called "whales," are systematically withdrawing coins from OTC platforms, leaving no supply for new buyers.
Anomaly of the Current Cycle: Accumulation Instead of Distribution
Unlike previous bull cycles, where the OTC wallet balance typically increased closer to the market peak (signaling profit-taking by large players), we are now seeing the exact opposite picture. BTC reserves on the OTC market have shrunk by a massive 400,000 coins — from 550,000 to approximately 150,000. This indicates that the current accumulation phase has significantly extended in time, and the rate of price growth during the bull trend has been much more modest than in past cycles. The cycle structure has completely changed: the whale accumulation period has lengthened, and the process itself has become more "sluggish" and drawn out.
OTC Market is Exhausted, but Growth Potential Exists
My data confirms that the current OTC balance low points to extreme accumulation strength. Liquidity on the over-the-counter market has virtually dried up. However, in my assessment, the true bullish momentum will only begin after the whales complete their buying spree. Once that happens, the OTC balance will start to rise again — this will be a signal for the start of an active distribution phase and, consequently, a powerful price rally.
Stablecoin Reserves: Dry Powder Accumulates, but Doesn't Rush
Additional confirmation of my hypothesis comes from the dynamics of ERC-20 standard stablecoin reserves on Binance. After peaking above $50 billion in late 2025, the volume of free liquidity (capital ready for purchases) has recovered and, since April 2026, stabilized around $45.4 billion. The pace of recovery remains slow, with no signs of haste or a massive inflow of funds from institutions. This indicates that "dry powder" is gradually accumulating, but the market will need more time for a confident breakout.
My Expert Opinion: The picture I see is classic for a late-stage accumulation. BTC supply on the OTC market is being depleted, and stablecoins on exchanges are slowly but surely accumulating. This creates ideal prerequisites for a powerful bullish breakout, but only after the whales fully complete their buying spree. Patience is the key asset in the current phase.