The liquidity of BTC on the over-the-counter market has collapsed to an all-time low: whales are absorbing the supply.
The Bitcoin market is experiencing a unique consolidation phase. On-chain data analysis reveals a critical compression of liquidity in the over-the-counter (OTC) market. The BTC balance on OTC platforms, where large investors conduct transactions directly, bypassing public exchanges, has dropped to a record low in the history of observations.
According to my calculations based on on-chain metrics, the volume of Bitcoin available for purchase on the OTC market has fallen by 400,000 coins — from 550,000 to 150,000 BTC. This is an unprecedented decline that has been ongoing since 2022 and indicates aggressive accumulation by institutional players.
Structural Changes in the Current Cycle
The key difference between the current cycle and previous ones is the prolonged nature of the accumulation. The growth rate during the bull market has been significantly lower than in past periods. We are observing a drawn-out process where whales are not rushing to take profits but continue to build their positions. Typically, an increase in the OTC balance signals an approaching market top, but now the trend remains downward. This suggests that large players are preparing for a much more significant rally.
Alongside the depletion of supply on the OTC market, there is an accumulation of "dry powder" on exchanges. The reserves of ERC-20 standard stablecoins on Binance amount to $45.4 billion. After peaking above $50 billion at the end of 2025, this volume of free liquidity has stabilized in a sideways range since April 2026. The pace of recovery is slow, with no signs of haste or a massive influx of capital from large investors.
Dual Signal: Supply Shrinks, Capital Accumulates
The two pictures complement each other. On the OTC market, BTC reserves are being depleted due to whale buying, while on exchanges, purchasing power in stablecoins is gradually accumulating. This indicates preparation on both sides: supply is decreasing, and capital for future purchases is slowly recovering. However, a confident market breakout will require more time.
My professional opinion: The current situation is a classic sign of "accumulation before an explosion." Historically, OTC balance lows have preceded strong bullish movements. But due to the slower nature of this cycle, we will likely see a sharp rise only after whales complete their accumulation. Investors should prepare for volatility, but with a clear bullish bias in the medium term.