Bitcoin liquidity on the OTC market has plummeted to an all-time low: whales are actively accumulating the asset.
The Bitcoin over-the-counter (OTC) trading market is experiencing an unprecedented liquidity squeeze. According to my data, the total BTC balance on OTC platforms has dropped to a record low in the history of observations. This trend is not a short-term fluctuation, but a sustained downward trend that began as early as 2022.
The key driver of this process is the aggressive accumulation of coins by large investors, the so-called "whales." Unlike previous market cycles, where an increase in the OTC balance traditionally signaled the approach of a bull market peak, the current dynamics are radically different. We are now witnessing a continuous depletion of supply on the over-the-counter market, which is a powerful bullish signal.
Scale of the Decline and Structural Changes
According to my analysis, the volume of bitcoins available for over-the-counter transactions has decreased by 400,000 coins — from 550,000 to approximately 150,000 BTC. This is a colossal drop, indicating a fundamental shift in the market structure. The accumulation phase by large players has significantly lengthened, and the rate of price increase during the current bull rally has been much more subdued compared to previous cycles. We are dealing with a "stretched" and slowed-down nature of this phase.
Historically, the true explosive price growth occurs after whales complete the accumulation stage. Once this process finishes, the OTC balance will begin to rise again, signaling the start of distribution. The current low suggests that accumulation is proceeding more intensely than ever, and liquidity in the market is nearly exhausted.
Signal from Stablecoins: Powder Remains Dry
Additional confirmation of this picture comes from the dynamics of ERC-20 standard stablecoin reserves on the Binance exchange. After peaking at $50 billion in late 2025, the volume of free capital ready for purchases corrected and has stabilized in a sideways range around $45.4 billion since April 2026.
The growth in stablecoin reserves indicates a gradual recovery of purchasing power on exchanges. However, the pace of this recovery remains slow, with no signs of haste or a massive influx of funds from institutional investors. This creates a unique configuration: BTC supply on the OTC market is being depleted due to whale accumulation, while "dry powder" in the form of stablecoins on exchanges is slowly building up.
My professional opinion: This combination of factors — record-low supply on OTC and the gradual accumulation of purchasing potential — forms an explosive mixture. The market is preparing for a powerful move, but it will take time for a confident breakout of current levels. Whales are clearly playing the long game, and once they finish accumulation, we will likely witness a new all-time high. Patience is the key quality in this phase of the cycle.