The liquidity of Bitcoin on the OTC market has plummeted to an all-time low: whales are actively accumulating.
The Bitcoin over-the-counter (OTC) trading market is experiencing unprecedented compression. According to my data, BTC liquidity volume on OTC platforms has dropped to the lowest level ever recorded. This is not just a correction—it is a structural shift that speaks volumes.
Since 2022, the Bitcoin balance on the OTC market has been steadily declining. Large investors, the so-called "whales," continue to actively buy up coins, removing them from circulation. Over this period, the volume of available Bitcoin on OTC has decreased by 400,000 coins—from 550,000 to 150,000. This is a colossal figure, indicating that supply on the over-the-counter market has virtually dried up.
How This Cycle Differs from Previous Ones
In past market cycles, an increase in the OTC balance was typically observed closer to the end of a bull rally. However, the current dynamics are radically different. The accumulation period by large players is dragging on, and the growth rates during the bullish phase have been significantly lower than before. This suggests we are dealing with a slower and more extended cycle.
In my estimation, the true bull rally will only begin after the whales complete their accumulation. Once they stop buying, the OTC balance will start to rise again, signaling the start of active price growth. The current low indicates that accumulation is proceeding at record pace, and market liquidity has virtually disappeared.
What Binance Stablecoin Reserves Indicate
Additional confirmation of this picture comes from the dynamics of ERC-20 standard stablecoin reserves on Binance. They currently stand at $45.4 billion. After peaking above $50 billion at the end of 2025, this volume of free liquidity is gradually recovering and has been trading in a sideways range since April 2026.
The growth in stablecoin reserves indicates that potential purchasing power is once again accumulating on the exchange. However, the recovery pace is slow, with no signs of urgency or a massive influx of funds from large investors.
These two pictures complement each other. On the OTC market, Bitcoin reserves are being depleted due to whale buying, while on exchanges, free liquidity in stablecoins is gradually building up. This points to accumulation on both sides: BTC supply is shrinking, and "dry" capital for future purchases is slowly recovering.
My conclusion: The market is going through an intense accumulation phase, but a confident breakout will require more time. Whales are taking coins off OTC, creating a supply deficit, while retail investors are not yet rushing in. Once accumulation is complete, we will see a sharp rise in liquidity and, likely, a new bullish impulse.