Bitcoin liquidity on the OTC market is drying up: whales are accumulating, preparing for a rally
The Bitcoin over-the-counter (OTC) trading market is experiencing a historic liquidity collapse. On-chain data analysis shows that the BTC balance on OTC platforms has dropped to an absolute minimum. This trend, which began back in 2022, is only intensifying, signaling a powerful accumulation phase by major players—so-called "whales."
Structural Changes in the Current Cycle
Unlike previous bull cycles, where the OTC balance began to rise closer to the peak, a steady decline is now observed. Since 2022, the volume of available Bitcoin on the OTC market has plummeted by 400,000 coins—from 550,000 to approximately 150,000 BTC. This is an unprecedented supply squeeze.
This dynamic points to a fundamentally different cycle structure. The accumulation period by whales is dragging on, and the rate of price growth during bull phases is lower than before. We are witnessing a "stretched" and slowed-down nature of the current market phase. In my assessment, the real rally will only begin after large investors complete their accumulation. Once that happens, the OTC balance will start to rise again, triggering a powerful upward move.
Stablecoins Accumulate Dry Powder
Additional confirmation of this scenario comes from the dynamics of stablecoin reserves on major exchanges, particularly Binance. After peaking above $50 billion in late 2025, the volume of free liquidity (capital ready for purchases) is gradually recovering. Since April 2026, it has stabilized in a sideways range around $45.4 billion.
This suggests that buying power is accumulating on exchanges, but the pace of capital inflow from institutions remains slow, with no signs of mass frenzy. The two pictures complement each other: BTC supply on OTC is being depleted due to whale buying, while "dry powder" in stablecoins is slowly recovering on exchanges.
Analyst's Conclusion
The current situation forms a classic bullish setup: supply is shrinking while potential demand is building up. However, the market will need more time for a confident breakout. Accumulation on both sides—of Bitcoin and stablecoins—indicates that we are in the final consolidation phase before a major move. Whales are clearly preparing for something bigger than just a local bounce.
My professional opinion: the current liquidity squeeze is one of the strongest bullish signals in recent years. When whales complete their accumulation and begin to deploy the accumulated stablecoins, the market could see explosive growth that will catch most retail traders, still expecting a deep correction, off guard.