The liquidity of Bitcoin on the OTC market has plummeted to an all-time low: whales continue to accumulate.
The Bitcoin market is experiencing a unique phase: liquidity on the over-the-counter (OTC) market has shrunk to an absolute all-time low. On-chain data analysis shows that the OTC BTC balance has been steadily declining since 2022, and this trend continues to intensify despite the current bullish momentum.
According to my calculations, since peak levels, the volume of Bitcoin on OTC platforms has plummeted by 400,000 coins — from 550,000 to 150,000 BTC. This fundamentally distinguishes the current cycle from all previous ones. Typically, the OTC balance begins to rise closer to the end of a bull market, when large holders take profits. However, we are now seeing the opposite picture: whales are not selling, but actively accumulating.
Structural Changes in the Cycle
The accumulation phase by institutional and large private investors is dragging on, and the rate of price growth during the bull rally has been lower than in past cycles. This points to a more mature and cautious market. Major players are not rushing — they are building long-term positions rather than chasing short-term profits.
Interestingly, parallel to the depletion of OTC reserves, exchanges are seeing a gradual recovery in stablecoin reserves. On Binance, for example, the volume of ERC-20 stablecoins stands at about $45.4 billion. After peaking above $50 billion at the end of 2025, this indicator stabilized and has been moving sideways since April 2026. This suggests that "dry powder" for future purchases is slowly accumulating, but without signs of urgency or a massive influx of capital from whales.
Two Sides of the Same Coin
The picture is contradictory but logical. On the OTC market, BTC supply is shrinking due to aggressive buying by whales, while on exchanges, the volume of free liquidity in stablecoins is gradually increasing. This is a classic accumulation scenario ahead of a major move: supply is decreasing, and purchasing power is recovering.
My conclusion: the current OTC balance low signals that accumulation is proceeding at a record pace. Once whales complete this phase, we may see a resumption of OTC balance growth, which will trigger a new bull rally. However, for a confident breakout, the market will need more time — the inertia of accumulation is too great.
As an analyst, I believe the current situation is not a sign of weakness, but a fundamental preparation for the next stage of growth. Investors should closely monitor the recovery of the OTC balance: this signal will mark the beginning of a new wave.