The liquidity of Bitcoin on the OTC market has collapsed to an all-time low: whales are in an active accumulation phase.
The over-the-counter (OTC) bitcoin market is experiencing an unprecedented liquidity squeeze. According to my data, based on on-chain metric analysis, the BTC balance on OTC platforms has dropped to the lowest level ever recorded. The trend of declining reserves in the over-the-counter market has been ongoing since 2022, signaling a structural shift in the behavior of the largest players.
Key takeaway: the current cycle is radically different from previous ones. Typically, the OTC market balance would begin to rise closer to the end of a bull phase, when large holders locked in profits. This time, we are seeing the opposite dynamic — whales are not selling but actively accumulating coins. Since 2022, the OTC balance has shrunk by a colossal 400,000 BTC — from 550,000 to approximately 150,000 coins.
This suggests that the accumulation phase by institutional investors is dragging on, and the rate of price growth during the bull market has been lower than in past cycles. The market is moving slower but more thoroughly. In my assessment, the real rally will only begin after the whales complete their accumulation phase. Once that happens, the OTC balance will rise again, and we will see a flow of coins from large players to retail investors.
Stablecoin reserves: a quiet preparation for a surge
At the same time, I am recording an important signal on the demand side. ERC-20 standard stablecoin reserves on Binance currently stand at around $45.4 billion. After peaking above $50 billion at the end of 2025, this liquidity pool is gradually recovering and has been trading sideways since April 2026.
The growth in stablecoin reserves indicates that potential purchasing power is accumulating on the exchange. However, the recovery pace is slow, with no signs of urgency or a massive capital inflow from large investors. The two pictures complement each other: on the OTC market, BTC supply is being depleted due to whale buying, while on exchanges, "dry powder" in stablecoins is gradually building up for future purchases.
My professional opinion: We are in a unique phase of liquidity compression on both sides — bitcoin supply is shrinking, and purchasing power is recovering, but without haste. The market will need more time for a confident breakout of current levels. Whales are playing the long game, and retail investors should be prepared for a prolonged consolidation before the next powerful upward move.