Bitcoin liquidity on the OTC market has collapsed to an all-time low: whales are in accumulation mode
The Bitcoin market is experiencing a unique phase: liquidity on the over-the-counter (OTC) market has shrunk to unprecedentedly low levels. According to my analysis of on-chain data, the BTC balance on OTC platforms has been steadily declining since 2022 and has now reached an absolute all-time low. This signals a powerful accumulation phase by large players.
The key metric — the OTC balance — has decreased by 400,000 coins: from 550,000 to approximately 150,000 BTC. This dynamic is radically different from previous market cycles. Typically, we observed an increase in the OTC balance closer to the end of a bull market, when whales began to take profits. In the current cycle, the opposite is true: the trend remains downward, and the accumulation period is prolonged, while the rate of price growth is lower than in past rallies. This points to a more mature and "slower" nature of the current bull market.
Stablecoins on Binance: Quiet Capital Accumulation
Additional confirmation of this picture comes from the reserves of ERC-20 standard stablecoins on Binance. After peaking above $50 billion at the end of 2024, this liquidity pool has shrunk, but since April 2025 it has stabilized in a range around $45.4 billion. This suggests that purchasing power on the exchange is gradually recovering, but without signs of haste or a massive inflow of institutional funds. Capital is accumulating "quietly," without hype.
Thus, we are witnessing a classic supply squeeze scenario: OTC BTC inventories are being depleted due to aggressive buying by whales, while the "dry powder" in stablecoins on exchanges is slowly but steadily recovering. A confident breakout of current levels and the start of a new rally wave will require more time than expected. In my assessment, the market is in an accumulation phase that precedes a strong move — once whales complete their purchases, liquidity will begin to return, and we will see a new wave of growth.
My conclusion: the current situation is a classic "smart money" signal. Whales are using corrections and sideways movement to build positions, washing supply out of the market. For retail investors, this may be the last "window of opportunity" before a powerful upward impulse. Patience is the key asset in this phase of the cycle.