The liquidity of bitcoin on the OTC market has collapsed to an all-time low: whales continue aggressive buying.
The over-the-counter (OTC) bitcoin market is experiencing an unprecedented liquidity squeeze. Based on my analysis of on-chain metrics, the total BTC balance on OTC platforms has dropped to the lowest level ever recorded. This trend has been ongoing since 2022, and we are witnessing large players — so-called "whales" — systematically withdrawing coins from circulation.
Anomaly of the Current Cycle
Typically, in previous market cycles, an increase in the OTC balance was observed closer to the end of the bull phase, when large holders began to take profits. However, the current dynamics are radically different. Instead of supply accumulating on OTC platforms, we are seeing its depletion. Over the past few years, the volume of BTC on the OTC market has decreased by approximately 400,000 coins — from 550,000 to about 150,000 BTC.
This suggests that the structure of the current cycle is fundamentally different. The accumulation phase by institutional and large private investors has been prolonged, and the rate of price increase during bull runs has been significantly lower than in past eras. We are dealing with a "stretched" and slower accumulation process.
Where is the "Dry Powder"?
Alongside the depletion of OTC bitcoin reserves, I am observing an interesting dynamic on centralized exchanges. The reserves of ERC-20 standard stablecoins on Binance, which are a key indicator of purchasing power, are gradually recovering. After peaking above $50 billion in late 2025 and a subsequent correction, this volume has stabilized at around $45.4 billion since April 2026.
This indicates that the "dry powder" for future purchases is slowly accumulating. However, the pace of recovery remains sluggish, with no signs of an urgent or massive influx of capital from large investors.
Conclusions and Outlook
The picture we see is dual. On one hand, bitcoin supply on the OTC market is steadily declining due to aggressive buying by whales. On the other hand, the liquidity pool in stablecoins on exchanges is gradually recovering, ready for deployment.
In my assessment, a true bull rally will only begin after the accumulation process by large players is complete. The current low in the OTC balance indicates that accumulation is proceeding more intensely than ever, and market liquidity is drying up. However, for a confident breakout to the upside, not only a reduction in supply but also a more active influx of buyer capital is needed. At the moment, the market is frozen in anticipation — and the longer this phase lasts, the more powerful the subsequent impulse could be.
My professional opinion: the current situation is a classic sign of a late-stage accumulation. Investors should prepare for volatility, but the long-term signal remains bullish, albeit requiring patience.