Market Analysis: Key Trends and Signals for Investors This Week
This week, the cryptocurrency market shows mixed dynamics. Bitcoin (BTC) is trading near the $67,500 mark, which is 2.3% higher than last week's closing level. Ethereum (ETH) shows more modest growth of about 1.8%, reaching $3,450. Altcoins such as Solana (SOL) and Cardano (ADA) are gaining 4.5% and 3.2% respectively, indicating a capital shift from major assets into riskier ones.
Macroeconomic Background and Institutional Interest
The key catalyst for the current growth is the expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September. US inflation data for July showed a slowdown to 2.9%, which strengthened bullish sentiment. Institutional investors are actively increasing their positions: over the past 7 days, net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs amounted to $1.2 billion, and into Ethereum ETFs — $340 million. This is the highest figure since March 2024.
Technical Analysis and Support Levels
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has formed a bullish flag on the 4-hour chart. A breakout of the resistance level at $68,200 will open the path to $72,000. However, the RSI indicator is at 68, approaching the overbought zone, which could trigger a short-term correction to $65,500. For Ethereum, the key support level is $3,300, a breakout of which would lead to a test of $3,100.
On-Chain Metrics and Sentiment
Chain analysis shows increased activity among large holders (whales). Over the past 48 hours, wallets with a balance of more than 1,000 BTC increased their positions by 1.8%. The MVRV Z-Score for Bitcoin is at 2.1, which historically corresponds to a phase of a sustained bull market. The Fear and Greed Index has risen to 72 (greed), signaling possible overheating, but not critical.
My expert conclusion: The current environment is favorable for medium-term positions, but I recommend taking partial profits as BTC approaches $70,000. The market is overheated in the short term, and without a correction to $64,000-$65,000, sustained growth is unlikely. Watch US unemployment data on Friday — it could be a trigger for a sharp move.