Bitcoin liquidity on the OTC market has collapsed to an all-time low: whales continue to accumulate.
The Bitcoin over-the-counter (OTC) trading market is experiencing unprecedented compression. On-chain data analysis shows that the BTC balance on OTC platforms has fallen to an absolute all-time low. This trend, which began in 2022, is only intensifying, signaling massive accumulation by the largest players.
Structural changes in the current cycle
The key conclusion I draw from this data is that the current market cycle is fundamentally different from previous ones. Typically, an increase in the OTC balance occurred closer to the end of a bull market, when large holders took profits. Now we are seeing the exact opposite: a continuous depletion of liquidity. During the accumulation period, the volume of bitcoins on the OTC market decreased by 400,000 coins — from 550,000 to approximately 150,000 BTC.
This suggests that "whales" are not just holding positions, but actively increasing them. The accumulation period has significantly extended over time, and the rate of price growth during bullish phases has been lower than in past cycles. It seems the market is moving slowly but purposefully.
Stablecoins on Binance: a quiet reserve for purchases
Additional confirmation of this hypothesis comes from the dynamics of ERC-20 standard stablecoin reserves on Binance. After reaching a peak of $50 billion at the end of 2025, the volume of free liquidity corrected and has stabilized around $45.4 billion since April 2026. Growth is slow, without the sharp spikes typical of large investors.
Thus, we see two complementary pictures: the supply of BTC on the OTC market is drying up due to aggressive buying by whales, while "dry powder" in the form of stablecoins is gradually accumulating on exchanges. This is a classic preparation for a powerful move.
My conclusion: The current situation indicates that we are in the final stage of accumulation. Once the "whales" complete this process, we can expect the start of a full-fledged bull rally, which will be accompanied by an increase in the OTC balance due to profit-taking. However, for a confident breakout of current levels, the market will need more time and capital accumulation. Patience is the main asset right now.