The liquidity of Bitcoin on the OTC market has collapsed to an all-time low: whales continue aggressive accumulation.
The Bitcoin over-the-counter (OTC) trading market is experiencing an unprecedented liquidity squeeze. According to on-chain analytics, the BTC balance on OTC platforms has dropped to its lowest level ever recorded. This trend, which began back in 2022, signals that large investors — so-called "whales" — are continuing to actively accumulate coins without moving them to the open market.
Contrary to the historical pattern, where the OTC balance rises closer to the peak of a bull cycle, the current cycle shows a steady decline. Bitcoin reserves on over-the-counter platforms have decreased by 400,000 coins — from 550,000 to 150,000 BTC. This indicates that the accumulation structure has fundamentally changed.
A Slower but Powerful Accumulation Cycle
The accumulation period for major players has noticeably lengthened, and the growth rate during the bull phase has been lower than in previous cycles. This confirms that the current market is "stretched": whales are in no hurry to take profits and continue to increase their positions. The OTC market, where large deals are conducted directly between parties, bypassing public exchanges, is losing its reserves. Once the accumulation process is complete, a resumption of OTC balance growth can be expected, which will trigger a new wave of the bull rally.
Stablecoin Reserves: Quiet Preparation for a Breakout
Alongside the depletion of OTC BTC reserves, a recovery in ERC-20 standard stablecoin reserves is being observed on the Binance exchange. After peaking above $50 billion at the end of 2025, the volume of free liquidity has stabilized around $45.4 billion since April 2026. This suggests that purchasing power is gradually accumulating on the exchange, though without signs of a massive capital inflow from institutional players.
These two pictures complement each other: BTC supply on the OTC market is drying up due to whale buying, while "dry powder" in the form of stablecoins is piling up on exchanges. However, a confident upward breakout will require more time — the pace of liquidity recovery remains slow for now.
My expert opinion: The current situation resembles a coiled spring. The depletion of the OTC balance amid growing stablecoin reserves is a classic precursor to a strong move. However, without a sharp influx of fresh capital from major players, the market could remain in a sideways trend longer than expected. Investors should prepare for volatility, but not for an immediate rally.