The liquidity of bitcoin on the OTC market has collapsed to an all-time low: whales continue aggressive buying.
The Bitcoin over-the-counter (OTC) market is experiencing an unprecedented liquidity squeeze. According to my on-chain data analysis, the BTC balance on OTC platforms has reached an all-time low. This trend has been steadily declining since 2022, indicating a targeted accumulation of coins by large investors, or so-called "whales."
Unlike previous market cycles, where an increase in the OTC balance typically signaled the approaching end of a bull rally, the current dynamic paints a completely different picture. The total volume of bitcoins available for OTC transactions has plummeted by a colossal 400,000 coins — from 550,000 to approximately 150,000 BTC. This suggests that the structure of the current cycle is fundamentally different from past ones: the accumulation period by major players is prolonged, and the rate of price growth during the bull market is significantly lower than before.
Slowed but powerful momentum
We are witnessing a stretched and slowed nature of the current accumulation phase. Whales are in no rush to take profits; instead, they continue to aggressively buy up supply, which is becoming increasingly scarce. Historically, when the OTC balance hits a bottom, it precedes the start of a powerful bull rally. We are currently at exactly that point: market liquidity is drying up, and accumulation is proceeding at a pace the market has never seen before.
Stablecoins on Binance: quiet preparation for a surge
Additional confirmation of my conclusions comes from analyzing ERC-20 stablecoin reserves on the Binance exchange. They currently stand at $45.4 billion. After peaking above $50 billion at the end of 2025, this volume of free capital ready for purchases is gradually recovering and has been trading in a sideways range since April 2026.
The increase in stablecoin reserves indicates that potential buying power is once again accumulating on the exchange. However, the pace of recovery is slow, with no signs of urgency or a massive influx of funds from large investors. These two pictures — the depletion of the OTC balance and the slow recovery of "dry" capital — complement each other. BTC supply is shrinking due to whale buying, while free liquidity in stablecoins is gradually building up, but more time will be needed for a confident market breakout.
My professional opinion: The liquidity squeeze in the OTC market is one of the most bullish signals I see. Whales are not just holding coins; they are actively removing them from circulation. Once the accumulation is complete and stablecoin reserves reach a critical mass, we could witness explosive growth that will catch most retail traders off guard.